Technical Analysis

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests 100 hour MA

Has not been above since February 8th The USDJPY has had more of a steady move higher in trading today.  The move higher has moved the price toward the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 106.696. In the process, the price moved above a channel trend line. That line and the 100 hour MA are the first key tests of the corrective move higher.

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USDJPY Thu 15 Feb

USD/JPY crumbles to fresh 15-month low

US dollar back on the backfoot What a horrible week for the dollar. Nothing is going right for it. Stops were hit below 106.30 and the Asian low of 106.18. The downdraft extended to 106.06 with bids at the big figure holding the line... for now.

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USDJPY Thu 15 Feb

Bids at 106.15 send USD/JPY back higher

Possible double bottom on the intraday chart USD/JPY is tracking the ebb and flow in equities closely today in a much quieter day. It tried to break the Asian low of 106.18 earlier but the lows held. That raises the possibility of a double-bottom on the short term chart. Y

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USDJPY Thu 15 Feb

Russia and OPEC aim to draft agreement on long-term alliance - report

Reuters report, citing the UAE energy minister - Oil producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia aim to draft an agreement on a long-term alliance by the end of 2018 There wasn't much in the way of a production curb in the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement. Most of the curbs were natural but they certainly shifted the psychology of the market so the leaders of the pact must feel like geniuses. But with the US producing more and more, it's tough to envision a repeat performance.

SP Wed 14 Feb

S&P reaches the 50% retracement target (well almost)

2702.78 is the retracement level The S&P index has reached a high of 2701.86. That is just shy of the 50% retracement of the move down from the January 2018 high at 2702.78. 

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GOLD Wed 14 Feb

Gold has made an impressive comeback ahead of Chinese new year

Gold up 1.8% Gold is now within striking distance of the 2016 highs after an impressive turnaround. Gold has outperformed any currency today and is up $24 to $1353.

EURUSD Wed 14 Feb

Dollar decline continues. New lows vs. all the major currencies (sans the JPY)

Dollar falls as yields rise. Stocks trading at highs The dollar continues its fall.  It has made new session lows vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. The USDJPY remains above its low for the day.

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YEAR-OF-THE-DOG Wed 14 Feb

What does the Chinese year of the dog mean for the forex market? A historical look

How has the forex market performed in the year of the dog in the past? Friday is Chinese new year and that means the end of the year of the rooster and the start of the year of the dog as part of the 12-year cycle. I'm not one to believe in this sort of thing, but let's have a bit of fun.

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AUDUSD Wed 14 Feb

AUDUSD back to the highs. Employment to be released in the new trading day

The 100/200 day MAs stall the fall The AUDUSD is back up to the highs of the day after its own wild up, down and back up swings.   The high for the day remains the Asian Pacific at 0.7889, but the swing-back higher - after the CPI fall - did reach 0.7887 and we are currently trading just a few pips lower at 0.7885.  The high area is home to a number of swing levels going back to February 5 (see red circles)

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USDJPY Wed 14 Feb

The crowded long-USD/JPY trade is feeling the squeeze

USD/JPY falls to 15-month low With the latest drop in the dollar, USD/JPY has taken out the September low and now faces the ugly prospect of a fall to the pre-US-election levels.

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EURUSD Wed 14 Feb

There goes the EURUSD. The rebound continues toward the 1.2400 target

61.8% of the February range at 1.2401 The EURUSD has now raced to a new high for the week and looks toward the 61.8% of the move down from the Feb 1 high at 1.2401.  There are swing highs from Feb 6 and 7 at 1.2404.  

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AUDUSD Wed 14 Feb

USDCAD retraces it's CPI gains

Fall below the 100 day MA spoils the buyers party The US dollar love affair in the USDCAD, turned disastrous after the price fell back below the 100 day MA way up at 1.26185. 

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GBPUSD Wed 14 Feb

GBPUSD races to new session highs, but backs off in volatile trade.

Gets close to 200 hour MA, but stalls.  Trades the week's range today.   The GBPUSD raced higher - following the general dollar decline over the last few minutes. 

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EURUSD Wed 14 Feb

EURUSD erases all the CPI declines

Races back above the 200 hour MA. The EURUSD has now erased all of the declines on the back of the higher CPI data. The move higher just broke above the 100 hour MA at 1.23355 and is seeing covering that has now taken the price above the 50% of the move down from Feb 1 high and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.2363 and 1.2368 respectively.

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USDCAD Wed 14 Feb

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD tries to stay above the 100 day MA

So far, so good The USDCAD has been having a tough time staying above the 100 day MA on Monday and Tuesday. There were a few looks above the MA line (currently at 1.26191) and each time, the price momentum quickly failed. 

USDJPY Wed 14 Feb

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY mulls what to do next.

Initial reaction was higher, but stocks and bonds in play and they are whipping around. The USDJPY is mulling what to do. The USDJPY moved up to a 107.52 and back above the 2017 low at 107.315.  But we are back below that level now and just tested 107.00. The low for the day reached 106.835. That was in the Asian session and bounced off a lower trend line. That trend line is much lower now.   

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EURUSD Wed 14 Feb

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD tumbles after the stronger CPI

Price waffling above and below the 100 hour MA The EURUSD fell sharply immediately after the higher than expected CPI. The tumble took the price below the swing levels from last week/early this week and the 100 hour MA at the 1.2292-97 area, but we are seeing a move back above as I type.  For the bears getting back below the MA and old ceiling area (see yellow area), will be eyed.  

EURUSD Wed 14 Feb

Technical levels in play through US data for the EURUSD

What levels to eye Mike outlined the key option expires. It seems there is a bunch in play today. What technical levels are in play? Targets below include: Targets on the topside:

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FOREX Wed 14 Feb

The NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest before CPI and retail sales

US dollar is weaker As the NA traders enter and the market prepares for the US CPI and retail sales, the NZD is the the strongest (inflation expectations rose to 2.1% from 2.0%), while the GBP is the weakest.  The USD is weaker ahead of the data with declines vs NZD, JPY, CHF, CAD and AUD, unchanged vs the EUR and higher vs. the GBP to start things off.  The chances are the order and magnitude will be changed after the 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT data. 

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