Has not been above since February 8th
The USDJPY has had more of a steady move higher in trading today. The move higher has moved the price toward the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 106.696. In the process, the price moved above a channel trend line. That line and the 100 hour MA are the first key tests of the corrective move higher.
US dollar back on the backfoot
What a horrible week for the dollar. Nothing is going right for it.
Stops were hit below 106.30 and the Asian low of 106.18. The downdraft extended to 106.06 with bids at the big figure holding the line... for now.
Possible double bottom on the intraday chart
USD/JPY is tracking the ebb and flow in equities closely today in a much quieter day.
It tried to break the Asian low of 106.18 earlier but the lows held. That raises the possibility of a double-bottom on the short term chart. Y
Reuters report, citing the UAE energy minister
- Oil producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia aim to draft an agreement on a long-term alliance by the end of 2018
There wasn't much in the way of a production curb in the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement. Most of the curbs were natural but they certainly shifted the psychology of the market so the leaders of the pact must feel like geniuses. But with the US producing more and more, it's tough to envision a repeat performance.
Dollar falls as yields rise. Stocks trading at highs
The dollar continues its fall.
It has made new session lows vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. The USDJPY remains above its low for the day.
How has the forex market performed in the year of the dog in the past?
Friday is Chinese new year and that means the end of the year of the rooster and the start of the year of the dog as part of the 12-year cycle. I'm not one to believe in this sort of thing, but let's have a bit of fun.
The 100/200 day MAs stall the fall
The AUDUSD is back up to the highs of the day after its own wild up, down and back up swings.
The high for the day remains the Asian Pacific at 0.7889, but the swing-back higher - after the CPI fall - did reach 0.7887 and we are currently trading just a few pips lower at 0.7885. The high area is home to a number of swing levels going back to February 5 (see red circles)
61.8% of the February range at 1.2401
The EURUSD has now raced to a new high for the week and looks toward the 61.8% of the move down from the Feb 1 high at 1.2401. There are swing highs from Feb 6 and 7 at 1.2404.
Races back above the 200 hour MA.
The EURUSD has now erased all of the declines on the back of the higher CPI data.
The move higher just broke above the 100 hour MA at 1.23355 and is seeing covering that has now taken the price above the 50% of the move down from Feb 1 high and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.2363 and 1.2368 respectively.
So far, so good
The USDCAD has been having a tough time staying above the 100 day MA on Monday and Tuesday. There were a few looks above the MA line (currently at 1.26191) and each time, the price momentum quickly failed.
Initial reaction was higher, but stocks and bonds in play and they are whipping around.
The USDJPY is mulling what to do.
The USDJPY moved up to a 107.52 and back above the 2017 low at 107.315. But we are back below that level now and just tested 107.00. The low for the day reached 106.835. That was in the Asian session and bounced off a lower trend line. That trend line is much lower now.
Price waffling above and below the 100 hour MA
The EURUSD fell sharply immediately after the higher than expected CPI. The tumble took the price below the swing levels from last week/early this week and the 100 hour MA at the 1.2292-97 area, but we are seeing a move back above as I type. For the bears getting back below the MA and old ceiling area (see yellow area), will be eyed.
US dollar is weaker
As the NA traders enter and the market prepares for the US CPI and retail sales, the NZD is the the strongest (inflation expectations rose to 2.1% from 2.0%), while the GBP is the weakest. The USD is weaker ahead of the data with declines vs NZD, JPY, CHF, CAD and AUD, unchanged vs the EUR and higher vs. the GBP to start things off. The chances are the order and magnitude will be changed after the 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT data.