Forex news for Asia trading Monday 24 April 2017
- NZ - tremors felt near Kaikoura. M3.3.
- Japan PM Abe: "Had thorough exchange of views on Nth Korea with Trump"
- French election round 1 recap, and what now for round 2? Macron locked in?
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.8673 (vs. Friday at 6.8823)
- BOJ reduces amount of 3 to 5 years bonds it bought from prior
- ANZ on the CFTC positioning data: Levered funds net buy USD again
- EUR/USD orderboard
- AUD and NZD orderboards
- Weekend WSJ: High levels of confidence don’t jibe with a slow-growing U.S. economy
- French election round 1 over, back to regular political **** ups
- China press - To continue deleveraging efforts
- UK data -Rightmove house prices for April: 1.1% m/m (prior 1.3%)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 24 April 2017
French election result, as it unfolded:
- French election - 95% counted: Macron 23.85%, Le Pen 21.58%
- Forex technical analysis: EURGBP gaps above broken trend line (THANKS GREG)
- French election - 90% counted: Macron 23.7%, Le Pen 21.9%
- Mohamed El-Erian on the French election: Markets avoided a destabilizing outcome
- EURUSD fails after another look at the highs as the strength of votes swing Macrons way (THANKS RYAN)
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD gaps toward March high (THANKS GREG)
- When is the final round of the French election? (Spoiler alert, May 7)
- French election: Here's the "Macron pulls ahead" counting update
- French election: Here's the next counting update
- French election: Counting update and EUR update too
- Opinion polls for 2nd round released: 60%+ Macron, Le Pen around 40%
- French election - Half votes counted now: Le Pen 24.13%, Macron 22.42%
- So many numbers, where are they all coming from? (THANKS RYAN)
- French election - Latest count (20mln votes), Le Pen 24.38%, Macron 22.19%
- French election - Early look at where the FX rates
- Le Pen, Macron to progress to 2nd round
- It's looking like Macron & Le Pen through so what does that mean for the Euro? (THANKS RYAN)
- French election early counts - EUR up large across the board
- French election, early count (ICYMI): Le Pen 25.1%, Macron 21.3%
- French election - Fillon concedes defeat
- French voter turnout slightly lower than the last election (THANKS ADAM)
- Automating the Federal Reserve would be glorious
- The problem with trading Trump's tax 'plan'
- A terrifying statistic on the retail workforce
- The Canadian housing market has gone absolutely foaming-at-the-mouth crazy
- You have to wonder what Exxon was thinking
- Good news if you don't like listening to the Bank of England
The biggest winners from the French elections are probably the pollsters, who managed not to completely mess it all up like their compatriots did in, well, pretty much everywhere else, right? :-D
Macron and Le Pen emerged the two front-runners from round 1 (the final tally looks to be 23.75% to 21.53% in favour of Macron) and will now will slug it out in the second, and final, round of the election due Sunday May 7. Macron is the clear leader at this stage, but despite the pollsters getting this round result very close indeed, caution is warranted with two weeks to go. Having said this, the money is moving for a Macron win.
Markets staged a 'relief rally' early, very early, on Monday, prior to New Zealand markets even opening. FX rates moved sharply in the super-thin liquidity conditions, EUR a huge gainer.
As I update, approximate highs for the euro against various majors (again, these occurred very early Monday morning Asia time):
- EUR/USD 1.0935/40
- EUR/GBP .8512
- EUR/CHF 1.0827
- EUR/JPY 120.91
Note, many charting platforms may not show these highs, much of the movement occurred before retail channels opened for the week's trade.
Moves since the highs have been retraces, 'gap fills', call them what you like. EUR/USD has seen a significant fall, points-wise, down to circa 1.0825. Having said this, it did have a huge move higher of 200+ points.
The AUD/USD fall from its highs around 0.7590 was, in % terms, more spectacular, retracing nearly its entire gain before wobbling back to be sitting just above 0.7555 as I update. NZD/USD has had a much small range, 0.7015/54 (give or take) pretty much encompassing it.
GBP/ USD has been even more of a loser than the AUD, from highs circa 1.2870 early its lost ground from late Friday to 1.2780 lows and is hovering just above as I post. Chatter is, of course, that the UK faces a difficult negotiating time ahead with a likely Merkel/Macron tag team on the other side. Speaking of big losers, shout out to the CHF; USD/CHF fell to under 0.9860 very early and has since come all the way back to a high around 0.9980, the swiss franc also below its late NY levels against the USD.
USD/JPY (high just shy of 110.65 early) was a big gainer, yen a perceived loser on the better 'risk' environment (could someone please send that memo to the Shanghai Composite?) and subsequently retracing under 110 again. Its poked above 110 again since, siting sideways for the past couple of hours circa 110.05.
Gold was a hit lower, under 1265 though it has recovered a little. Oil is up small.
- Nikkei +1.34%
- Shanghai -1.63%
- HK -0.29%
- ASX +0.15%
Still to come, maybe: