Forex news for New York trading on November 17, 2017
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- US stocks are ending the session lower. For the week the changes were mixed.
- CFTC Commitment of Traders report. JPY shorts at the largest level since December 2013
- Crude oil futures ending the session with strong gains
- Gold up about $15 on the day. Highest level since October 17th
- Goldman is out with their top trades for 2018
- Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows oil rigs 738 vs 738 last week
- Forex technical analysis: USDCHF tests 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Bounces
- IFO institute lifts 2017 GDP growth for Germany to 2.3% from 1.9%
- As European stocks close in Europe, traders look to exit for the week. A look at the markets.
- NY Fed GDP Nowcast estimate for 4Q rises to 3.8% from 3.2% last week
- Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index comes in at 16 verses 21 estimate
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 4Q growth rises to 3.4% from 3.2% last
- US mortgage delinquencies rise to 4.8% from 4.24%
- Chair of EU leaders Tusk: We need to see more progress from UK
- Dallas Fed's Kaplan: US economy approaching full employment
- Canada CPI (NSA) MoM for October 0.1% vs 0.1% est.
- US Oct housing starts 1290k vs 1190k expected
- The JPY is the strongest while the NZD is the weakest as NA trader enter.
- ForexLive morning news wrap: Pound enjoys a Friday roller-coaster ride in a busy session all round
A snapshot of other markets as the trading week comes to a close:
- Spot gold rose $16.33 or +1.28% at $1295
- WTI crude oil futures settled the week at $56.55 up $1.41 or 2.56%
- US interest rates are mostly lower with the yield curve getting flatter. 2-year 1.721%, +1.3 basis points. 5 year 2.055%, -1.5 basis points. 10 year 2.345%, -3 basis points. 30-year 2.781%,, -4.5 basis points
- US stock indices are closing lower. S&P index fell by . NASDAQ index was down . Dow industrial average fell by .
The JPY was the strongest currency of the day. The buying started in the Asian session and continued in the NY session.
After a corrective move higher in US rates yesterday, they fell back lower today. The 10 year yield fell by 3 basis points and the 30 year fell by 4.3 basis points. Moreover the yield curve is flattening.
Fed's Kaplan explained the falling yields by saying the bond traders were pessimistic about the US economy going forward. I guess he is not bullish on the economy or perhaps the likelihood of stimulus from the tax reform prospects ahead.
Putting it another way, perhaps the "market" is not bullish on the economy or the prospects from tax reform either.
The 10 year's 200 day MA comes in at 2.305%. The 100 day MA comes in at 2.277%. Keep those levels in mind for next week. If yields continue to move lower, the USDJPY should follow their lead. PS the CFTC Commitment of traders report showed that the yen shorts were at the highest level since December 2016. That may have helped contribute to the rise in the JPY (Short covering)
In data today,
- US housing starts rose strongly. The pace of sales is up to 1290K. That was much higher than the 1190K estimate and last months 1135K value. It is the highest level for the year and also the highest level since October 2016.
- US building permits were also stronger than expectations at 1297K vs 1250K estimate. They fell just short of the 2017 high of 1300K.
- In Canada, CPI came in about as expected (a wiggle higher here, a wiggle lower there). The USDCAD moved higher into resistance at 1.2819, but then spent the rest of the day taking back the gains.
- The data from yesterday and today did lead to increases in the estimates for 4Q GDP in the US from the NY Fed (they see 3.4% vs 3.2% last) and the Atlanta Fed (they see 3.8% vs 3.2% last), but that still did not help the greenback which was lower vs the EUR, GBP, JPY ad CHF, higher against the AUD and NZD and unchanged vs the CAD.
Next week, the US will celebrate Thanksgiving day on Thursday. That should create a lull in trading.
- Yellen speaks on Tuesday at 6 PM ET
- US Durable goods will be released on Wednesday
- FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday afternoon
- UK will release GDP on Thursday
- Canada's retail sales will also be released on Thursday
Wishing all a great weekend.