Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex news for New York trading on November 17, 2017

Intro Paragraph Text Here.

A snapshot of other markets as the trading week comes to a close:

  • Spot gold rose $16.33 or +1.28% at $1295
  • WTI crude oil futures settled the week at $56.55 up $1.41 or 2.56%
  • US interest rates are mostly lower with the yield curve getting flatter.  2-year 1.721%, +1.3 basis points.  5 year 2.055%, -1.5 basis points.  10 year 2.345%, -3 basis points.  30-year 2.781%,, -4.5 basis points
  • US stock indices are closing lower.  S&P index fell by  .  NASDAQ index was down  .  Dow industrial average fell by  .

The JPY was the strongest currency of the day. The buying started in the Asian session and continued in the NY session.  

The catalyst?  

After a corrective move higher in US rates yesterday, they fell back lower today. The 10 year yield fell by 3 basis points and the 30 year fell by 4.3 basis points. Moreover the yield curve is flattening.   

Fed's Kaplan explained the falling yields by saying the bond traders were pessimistic about the US economy going forward.  I guess he is not bullish on the economy or perhaps the likelihood of stimulus from the tax reform prospects ahead. 

Putting it another way, perhaps the "market" is not bullish on the economy or the prospects from tax reform either.  

The 10 year's 200 day MA comes in at 2.305%. The 100 day MA comes in at 2.277%.  Keep those levels in mind for next week. If yields continue to move lower, the USDJPY should follow their lead. PS the CFTC Commitment of traders report showed that the yen shorts were at the highest level since December 2016. That may have helped contribute to the rise in the JPY (Short covering)

In data today, 

  • US housing starts rose strongly. The pace of sales is up to 1290K. That was much higher than the 1190K estimate and last months 1135K value.  It is the  highest level for the year and also the highest level since October 2016.  
  • US building permits were also stronger than expectations at 1297K vs 1250K estimate.  They fell just short of the 2017 high of 1300K.  
  • In Canada, CPI came in about as expected (a wiggle higher here, a wiggle lower there). The USDCAD moved higher into resistance at 1.2819, but then spent the rest of the day taking back the gains.
  • The data from yesterday and today did lead to increases in the estimates for 4Q GDP in the US from the NY Fed (they see 3.4% vs 3.2% last) and the Atlanta Fed (they see 3.8% vs 3.2% last), but that still did not help the greenback which was lower vs the EUR, GBP, JPY ad CHF, higher against the AUD and NZD and unchanged vs the CAD. 


Next week, the US will celebrate Thanksgiving day on Thursday. That should create a lull in trading.  

  • Yellen speaks on Tuesday at 6 PM ET
  • US Durable goods will be released on Wednesday
  • FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday afternoon
  • UK will release GDP on Thursday
  • Canada's retail sales will also be released on Thursday
Those are some of the highlights.

Wishing all a great weekend.  

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Author: Mike Paterson
5

Forex news for the European morning trading session 17 Nov 2017

News:

Data:
A lively morning that's seen an up n down journey for the pound, on-going yen demand and further AUD and NZD losses.

It's been a real mixed bag of reason with yen demand, option expiry interest, Brexit fragility and good ol' fashioned natural order interest all playing out.

GBPUSD had triggered stops through 1.3210 in Asia and headed up further early on to test 1.3250 only to retreat back round 1.3230. Another attempt followed then another a little higher at 1.3260 but decent sell interest that I highlighted along with EURGBP demand around 0.8900 ,plus some natural GBPJPY sell interest all combined to send pound longs scuttling and we've seen a test of 1.3180 support/demand, 0.8940 and 148.60 in the GBP retreat.
                                                     GBPUSD
That yen demand has put a lid on USDJPY rallies at 112.65 and an AUDJPY option expiry at 85.50 lent supply to core pairs, helping to drive AUDUSD down to 0.7542 from 0.7610. NZDUSD has also continued its retreat from 0.6880 to post 0.6780.

EURUSD meanwhile has been caught in the cross play crossfire finding support into 1.1780 and offers above 1.1800 with a few option expiries helping to contain too.

USDCHF and EURCHF both saw dips again but overall remain underpinned with SNB never too far away it seems.

USDCAD headed up from 1.2720 to 1.2765 largely on CADJPY supply and thus shrugging off oil gains.

  • Equities started on the back foot but have recovered losses to post gains
  • Gold has been underpinned at $1281 but failed above $1285
  • Oil has been on a steady incline
Not a lot of data of note today but here's what's coming up.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex news for Asia trading Friday 17 November 2017


The USD weakness was pretty much kicked off by the story in the Wall Street Journal on the US Russia probe:

In that post I linked to a WSJ story, if you cannot access the Journal, here is an ungated sources that has popped up since:

After this there was a slow-moving USD slide, very slow, but persistent. It accelerated firstly against the GBP, Cable popped above 1.3210 (check out a chart ... there was covering to do above there).

EUR gained more quickly after this.

For the yen, the story is further mixed with the North Korea news:

The news Reuters reported on had been broken a few hours before by more specialist sites, but Reuters was the first major wire to break it. The yen strengthened.  The Nikkei gave back some its morning pop. Further mixed into the murk was the BOJ buying less JGBs than in a previous operation. The Nikkei dropped from its opening gains as the yen climbed.

While the USD/CNY central rate was set little changed on the day, PBOC injections into money markets totalled 810bn yuan for this week, the biggest injection since January of this year.

As the session progressed the USD gained back just a small amount, mainly influenced by US tax news again:

For the session as a whole, though, the USD is generally weaker. USD/JPY hit lows circa 112.40 (currently around 112.52). EUR/USD gained to around 1.182 and is just under 1.1810 as I post. USD/CHF lower, and Cable higher.

Notable laggards were the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Really notable!

AUD/USD gained to just shy of 0.7610 but has given back pretty much all of it to be barely changed on the day now. A similar story for the kiwi, higher but now basically flat on the session. Contrast these with USD/CAD, the CAD strengthening against the USD (USD/CAD to under 1.2720 and only a 10 or so point bounce since then). A terrible antipodean performance today, which is ominous as we go into Friday in Europe and the US.


The Korean won continued its happy march higher today. BOk is not impressed and tried to talk it down a bit .... not much luck though.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for New York trading on November 16, 2017.

A snapshot of other markets near the end of day shows:

  • Spot gold of $.38 or 0.03% at $1278.50
  • WTI crude oil futures down $.14 or -0.25% at $55.19
  • US interest rates  are higher.  Two-year 1.708%, +2.5 basis points.  Five-year 2.07%, +3.8 basis points.  10 year  2.37%, +5.1 basis points.  Thirty-year  2.82%,, +6 basis points
  • US stocks surged on the back of higher earnings from Walmart and Cisco and the passing of the house tax reform bill.  S&P up 0.82%.  NASDAQ up 1.3%.  Dow industrial average up 0.8%.
The big news today (although expected) was the House of Representative passing of their tax reform bill.  The Senate is next. They will have a tougher time as the margin of for victory is only 2 swing votes (assuming all the Democrats vote "nay").  The Senate vote will be taken after Thanksgiving.  After that (and assuming passage from the Senate), the two bills go to committee before a final vote.  It is hoped that the final bill can be signed into law by the President before Christmas.  That is the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is it does not get to committee because of opposition in the Senate. Time will tell, but today was a good day for Rep Brady and House Speaker Ryan and the rest of the GOP members.

On the economic front, the Initial jobless claims were higher than expectations at 249K versus 235K estimate.  The data is still being impacted by hurricanes.  

The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index was lower than expectations of 22.7 versus 24.6.  US import price index rose by a smaller than expected 0.2% versus 0.4%. Finally industrial production capacity utilization were greater than expectations (IP rose 0.9% vs 0.5% estimate and Cap. Util. 77.0% vs 76.3%).  However, they were influenced also by the hurricane in a positive way (+0.6% for Industrial production).

The best data came out of Canada with Manufacturing sales coming in much better at +0.5% vs -0.5% estimate.  


The US news did not have that great an impact on the USD dollar in the NY session. Yes prices moved up and/or down, but apart from the USDCAD which extended its range by 25 pips vs the NY opening (as a result of the much better Manufacturing sales data), and the USDCHF which extended by 10 pips (the CHF pairs are trading at extremes into the close), the trading stayed within the high low range set by Asian and London trading for the rest of the major currency pairs.  In fact all the major pairs against the USD, and major crosses failed to reach their 22-day averages (see lower chart below).


The greenback was mixed, with gains vs the EUR, JPY, JPY and NZD and losses against the GBP, and CAD. It was unchanged vs. the AUD.

For the day the strongest currency was the GBP while the weakest was the CHF.

Toward, the close I did outline the technicals for some of the major pairs including the USDCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD. You can find my thoughts for those pairs, but CLICKING HERE.

For those traders in the Far East who will call it a day at they end of your shift, let me wish you all a great and safe weekend.  And for all traders, good fortune with your trading.  

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