Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex news for NY traders on February 24, 2017


In other markets today:

  • S&P up 0.15%
  • Nasdaq up 0.17%
  • Dow up 0.05%. The 11 consecutive record close.
  • 2 year 1.144% -3.7 bp
  • 5 year 1.804% -5.4 bp
  • 10 year 2.313% -5.8 bp
  • 30 year 2.951% -6.0 bp
  • WTI crude $54.03, -$0.41 or -0.75%
  • Spot gold $1256, $7.00 or 0.57%
The data was light today. Canada CPI was better than expectations. The USDCAD fell to the days lows and then rebounded and retraced the declines.

In the US, new home sales came out weaker than estimate at 555K vs 570K annualized pace. The number was still higher than the prior month at 535K.  

The University of Michigan sentiment index (final) was revised higher to 96.3 from 95.7 original estimate.  The current condition was revised to 111.5 from 111.2. THe Expectations index rose to 86.5 from 85.7.  Inflation expectations out to 1 year fell to 2.7% from 2.8% and 5-10 year expectations remained steady at 2.5%

President Trump spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington.  Compared to a day ago when he was in front of 24 business leaders, the crowds were there, the camera's were running, the music was playing, and as a result, it was a rerun of "The Best of Donald Trump" from the campaign trail.  Little was said about taxes/regulations (will he get more specific when he speaks in front of the House and Senate?). There was lots about "fake news", Obamacare, Hillary. there was "The Wall" and how he inherited a "disaster" and to make sure that those who came in late would not miss the details, he repeated himself in different ways.  There are good days. There are bad days.  I prefer when he is looking for ways to solve problems. I don't love when he divides.  

Bond yields fell. it may have been a combination of France concerns and general flight into quality.   The stock market did rally though.  The major indices were going into the speech with the Nasdaq down about 22 points and the S&P down about 8 points.  By the end of the day, those indices were up on the day. The gains were marginal, but the Nasdaq was down about -35 points at the low and ended up about 10 points. So love him or hate him, the market is putting their trust in Trump.  

What about some of the major currency pairs. What are the charts saying?

The EURUSD is ending down on the day and near the lows for the day (down 0.22%). This was a reversal of the strength seen at the start of the day (was up 0.25% as NA traders entered for the day).  The move lower was sharp and quick. The move lower stalled at the 100 hour MA now once, not twice but over the course of the day, 5 days.   IN the last few hours, that MA was broken (it is a 1.0562), and the pair is closing modestly below that MA.  In early trading next week, the MA line will be a key level to stay below if the bears are to stay in control.  Another key target on the downside in the new week will be 1.0503-20 (see post here). 

The USDJPY is ending the week around the 112.00 level and is the biggest mover of the day vs the USD.   The pair is ending down 0.79% on the day (USD lower by that amount). The selling started in the London session and fell below support at 112.51-57 in the process. The pair stalled against the 112.00 level three separate times before breaking.  The high correction could only get to 112.47.  In the new trading week, the 112.51-57 is risk for shorts. Stay below, more bearish. More momentum below the 112.00 level have traders looking toward the 100 day MA at 111.58.  The last time the USDJPY traded below the 100 day MA? November 9th - the day Donald Trump won the US election.  

The GBPUSD traded at the highest level since February 9th today at 1.25688, but tumbled with the rebound in the USD into the close. The pair is ending below a cluster of MAs between 1.24688 and 1.2484. Those MA will be close resistance for shorts in the new trading week. The key targets to the downside will come in between 1.2403 (100 day) MA and the 1.2411/17 area (swing levels going back to mid-January.

The AUDUSD rallied to topside resistance for the 2nd week in a row on Thursday (between 0.7730 and 0.7755). That area stalled the rally and today was spent moving lower. We are ending the day near the low.  For a complete review of the pair CLICK HERE.

The NZDUSD has been in a trading range over the last 11 or so trading days. The low on Tuesday took out the Feb 14 low by 4 pips and failed. The high on Thursday took out the high from Feb 16 by 4 pips and failed.  There is symmetry at least.  The price is sitting in the middle of the 11 day range around 0.71877 as the week comes to an end.   Which way do we break in the new trading week. For a more detailed look at the pair, click here. 

Below are the % changes for the major currencies vs each other.


Wishing all a happy and healthy weekend. 

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Author: Mike Paterson
4

Forex trading news and economic data headlines 24 February 2017

Data:

A relatively steady session as the week-end approaches but one notable for yen and gold demand again as equities fall.

The session started with USDJPY on the back foot and with general USD supply elsewhere lifting GBPUSD to 1.2550, EURUSD 1.0604 and AUDUSD to 0.7710 among others but as equities started to extend losses so the yen demand helped cap core pairs.

EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY have been three notables under the cosh down to 118.90,140.71, and 86.28 with the FTSE 100 down -0.7%, DAX -1.5% and CAC40 -1.31% as I type.

AUDUSD got an early lift from gold posting 3 1/2 month highs of $1255 but has since fallen back to 0.7680 as the shiny stuff runs out of polish and AUDJPY falls outstrip others.

USDCHF has fallen to 1.0040 but still finding some support with EURCHF steady around 1.0650 while USDCAD has found support into 1,3080 again as CADJPY supply prevails and oil retreats from highs.

USD supply though is rearing its head again as NA desks start to fire up and that's lifted EURUSD back to 1.0611, and GBPUSD to 1.2554 the latter though finding gains capped by EURGBP month-end related demand albeit finding sellers of its own above 0.8450.

Canadian CPI at 13.30 and US Michigan sentiment/US new home sales at 15.00 GMT the data risks to come and we can expect some further action before the week is out.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
5

Forex news for Asia trading Friday 24 February 2017

There was minor across the board strength for the USD, with yen a big (relatively speaking) loser. USD/JPY saw (very) early lows around 112.60 but during the Tokyo morning it managed to trudge its way above 112.90 before topping out there for the session.

EUR, CHF, AUD, GBP, NZD all lost ground against the USD in tiny ranges.

Apart from remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe (I'll come to these) news and data flow as nearly non-existent (for a few minor bits and pieces, see the bullets above)

RBA Governor Lowe reiterated messages he and the Bank have been sending, most notably on monetary policy that further Australian rate cuts are well off the agenda for the time being. On the Australian dollar Lowe was alos clear, with (to paraphrase but this is the gist):

Would like AUD to be lower, but find it hard to say A$ is overvalued. And, if commodity prices appreciate, would expect A$ to rise as well.

He has said those comments before on the $A (last week) and the comment related to commodity prices is non-controversial.

The Australian dollar remained unmoved through much of Lowe's testimony (3 hours answering politicians questions ... I hope someone bought him a drink when it was over), only dribbling a little lower along with other currencies against the USD as noted above.

As I update some currencies are making a comeback against the USD, the net result is EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD are all little changed against the big buck on the session. The yen is still a little weak for the session, as is the NZD (on session lows).

Gold is little changed, oil too.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei -0.16%  
  • Shanghai -0.30%
  • HK -0.41%
  • ASX -0.71%

Still to come:

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Author: Adam Button

Forex news for US trading on Feb 23, 2017:

Markets:

  • Gold up $12 to $1250
  • S&P 500 up 2 points to 2356
  • US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 2.38%
  • WTI crude up 79-cents to $54.39
  • GBP leads, USD lags
The market wants the goodies. The USD really in the election aftermath was predicated on a long slate of promises around regulation, taxes and infrastructure spending. What's becoming increasingly clear is how tough it will be to deliver, even with full Republican control.

The US dollar slump came as the market connected the dots on a series of stories playing down hopes for 2017 growth, extending timelines for stimulus and edging towards partisan politics.

USD/JPY traded in a narrowing wedge around 113.20 in Asia and early Europe then finally broke to the downside on Mnuchin's early comments. It continued down to 112.60 where it's flatlined.

USD/CAD erased yesterday's pop from poor Canadian retail sales. The pair sank on the rally in oil and general USD softness. It was a steady move down to 1.3085 from 1.3060.

EUR/USD finished up 20 pips at 1.0580 after climbing as high as 1.0595. The 1.06 level is now acting as resistance as the ebb and flow of European and US politics drives the see-saw.

Cable finished nearly 100 pips higher to the best level since Feb 9. The pair dipped in Asia then began a long climb to a high of 1.2560 with a finish near the highs.

Gold and oil both appear to be breaking out or nearly breaking out. Keep an eye on the closing levels.

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More session wraps for your convenience.

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