Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Thursday 22 March 2018

Plenty of movement leading into Asia today with the Federal Reserve decision, and some continuation moves into the morning here. USD/JPY dropped a little further, to circa 105.60 while EUR, GBP and CHF all added a few more points against the USD.

NZD/USD dropped away a little on the RBNZ decision (no change, but see bullets above for more) and then recovered back toward US time highs. CAD has not done too much on the session here at all.

AUD/USD gained a little but following the employment report (one line summary is continuing jobs growth but still slack evident in the jobs market ... again check out the bullets above for more).

Solid underperformance from the AUD today .... 

The  People's Bank of China pumped up the yuan today, its biggest rise in nearly a month at the daily central rate setting. 

Still to come:

View More

View Full Article with Comments

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on March 21, 2017.

In other markets near the US close:

  • Spot gold is up $21.23 or 1.62% at $1332.52
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $1.95 or 3.07% at $65.49
  • Bitcoin is trading down -$17 at $8888
The FOMC voted to raise rates by 0.25% to 1.75%. The decision was as expected. The Fed has now raised rates from a low 0.25% or +150 basis points.  

The Fed's much watched dot plot forecasts that at the end of 2018, the Fed would have hiked 3 times.  At the end of 2019, they would have added another 3 hikes (up from 2) to 2.75%-3%. The 2020 expectations for rates was also increased to 3.25% - 3.50% (from 3.00-3.25% prior).  

So the Fed did not change 2018, but it raised 2019 by 1 hike and that followed through to 2020.  

One would think the dollar would rise and rates would move higher.   

What happened? 

The dollar went lower, and rates went lower.

The table above shows the strongest and weakest currencies for the day. The USD (see chart in the top left corner) was in the red vs. all the major currencies.  The JPY was the next weakest but it was well behind the changes in the greenback.

What happened to the US yields?
  • 2 year, 2.30%, -4.1 basis points
  • 5 year 2.670%, -2.6 basis points
  • 10 year 2.877%, -1.8 basis points
  • 30 year 3.107%, -2.3 basis points
Yield went lower on a hike and an increase in rate projections.  Go figure...

Well the "figure",  and the story can probably be focused on the commentary by Powell as he took the seat in front of the press for the first time as Fed Chair.  

In addition to being less theoretical - economically that is (and therefore more direct), he also emphasized a number of times, that:
  1. The meeting today was about what to do with rates NOW. The answer was "Raise by 0.25%", and 
  2. That the dot-plot that projects rates out beyond what we can see with any clarity, is not all that important.
Those ideas, more than anything, seemed to assuage the anxiety in the debt markets and bring the focus from "out there" in the theoretical world" to "now" in the real world.  

Whether that will stand tomorrow or going forward - it still seems 2.88% in 10 year is too low - but it was good enough to keep rates contained, and lead to selling in the dollar.  

At least that is how I figure it....

In other developments today:
  • The CAD was the strongest of the currencies today. It benefited from greater confidence on NAFTA. The US also said that they would drop the 50% requirement of US parts for cars made in member nations.  The USDCAD fell below swing levels from October, November and December at 1.2907-1.2926 and is down testing a lower channel trend line (see chart below). 

  • The EURUSD - after the data - stalled at the lower end of the swing low area at 1.2251-72. The price rallied above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.2296 and 1.23227 respectively. The 1.23227 (200 hour MA) is now support/risk for the bulls.

  • The GBPUSD was also up strongly today and in the process, moved to test/break a topside trend line on the hourly chart at 1.4139 area. The high reached 1.4149 - the highest level since February 5th - but is backing off, back below the trend line into the close.   Be careful in that pair into the new trading day as the trend line may be a level that traders lean against now.

  • The RBNZ kept rates unchanged at the end of the trading day. The NZDUSD moved higher into the decision but is working back toward the 100 hour MA at 0.7215. That MA will be a barometer for bulls and bears into the new trading day.  Stay above, more bullish. Move below, more bearish.

Good fortune with your trading.  

View More

View Full Article with Comments

Author: Mike Paterson

Forex and cryptocurrency news from the European morning trading 21 Mar 2018

Understandably a steady session overall range wise as the US Fed FOMC announcement holds sway but also with large option expiry interest playing out on EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

USD selling has been generally notable and sent USDJPY down from 106.50 through one line of support/demand at 106.30 only to fail at the next one around 106.20. EURUSD meanwhile had also found good option related support at 1.2250 to post 1.2291 and GBPUSD from 1.4020 to 1.4075 helped by some decent UK wages/jobs data.

USDCHF remains underpinned but has fallen back from 0.9550 to 0.9520 while USDCAD has fallen from 1.3060 to 1.3003 on a double whammy of oil price rally too.

AUDUSD has had another soggy session and failed above 0.7700 to drop and test 0.7680 demand/support again while NZDUSD also remains on the back foot.

Gold, like oil, has also rallied but retreated too from $1318 while equities have traded with softer tones.

Bitcoin has continued its recent rally to clear $9000 from $8500 and remain underpinned.

Data coming up at 12.30 GMT but it's the FOMC that steals the spotlight at 18.00 GMT

View More

View Full Article with Comments 10

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Wednesday 21 March 2018

It was a Tokyo holiday and a pre-FOMC session, so moves were a little subdued as traders waited.

But .... news broke of a change in the US position on NAFTA (unidentified sources quoted, so bear that in mind) and the Canadian dollar (and Mexican peso) rose. Check out the bullets above for more, and check out the MXN move:

Elsewhere it was, as expected, quite a muted session with very small ranges and very little net change pretty much across the board. Data flow was almost non-existent, and what we did get was lower-tier and non FX market moving. 

Still to come:

And, ladies and gentlemen, while the focus is on the Fed, don't forget that a couple of hours after is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement:

View More

View Full Article with Comments

More session wraps for your convenience.