Reserve Bank of Australia's Luci Ellis, Assistant Governor (Economic) is speaking at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) Lunchtime Briefing
- Expects global economic expansion to last for a while yet
- Geopolitical risk in Asia has increased, while lessening in the euro area
- Says hunt for yield less of a risk now rates are starting to rise globally
- Still believes global wage growth and inflation will pick up, but may take some time
- Says policy globally will have to stay expansionary should inflation remain low
- Says high household debt in Australia is a risk in the event of an economic shock
- Says household debt on its own unlikely to trigger such a shock
ps. AUD doesn't care ... doing very little indeed.
Full text: The Current Global Expansion
If you do go and read the text you can save some time by scrolling right to the end and reading the conclusion ...
To sum up, the global economy is looking better than it did a year ago. The turning point was around the end of last year. While it doesn't seem to have picked up further recently, neither is this expansion a flash in the pan. That is positive news for the Australian economy, too.
Noticing that change in momentum required economic forecasters to be alert to the right indicators, and have the right framework for thinking about the signals these indicators send. Nothing is ever clear-cut. There are always uncertainties about the data. There are times when you have to be willing to make a call, because waiting until you are 100 per cent sure things have changed means waiting too long. And that means taking a view and being willing to evolve that view as new data come in, just as we always have done.
Aussie economy - looking up!
