Previews of the October Industrial Production, Fixed Assets (excluding rural), and Retail Sales data from China

The data is due at 0200 GMT. Previous month's results, and the Bloomberg survey has expectations at:

Industrial Production,

  • expected 6.3% y/y, prior 6.6%

Fixed Assets (excluding rural),

  • expected 7.3%, prior 7.5%

Retail Sales

  • expected 10.5%, prior 10.3%

These via

Barclays:

  • We expect IP growth to moderate to 6.3% in October from 6.6% in September as signalled by the easing manufacturing PMI and slower high frequency data, and fixed asset investment growth to edge lower to 7.4% y/y on slowing real estate investment.
  • The moderation in October activity data, in our view, reflects fewer working days in the month compared with last year, and production disruption due to the Party Congress. Growth in retail sales likely remained steady at 10.3%.

and TD Securities:

  • Slightly lower than expected manufacturing PMI for Oct suggest an easing in industrial production and retail sales after the pop in September. Consensus expects healthier retail sales (related to the NCP?) and a similar step down in IP.