This is a response from Westpac and their one line summary nails it
- jobs momentum solid - labour market slack remains
Pretty much, yeah ... and this take from Westpac is one I've seen all over the place
In summary:
- In the first three quarters of 2017, we saw some progress in reducing the unemployment rate but that has since stalled as participation has increased.
February's data release also includes the quarterly seasonally adjusted underemployment figures
- Underemployment rose to 8.4% from 8.3% in November, remaining at a stubbornly elevated level but is down from 8.9% a year earlier.
February's jobs gain of 17.5k is consistent with a solid employment growth outlook over the near-term as suggested by business surveys.
- Momentum has eased from 2017's
- pace is still faster than working age population growth of around 1.7% annually, the recent experience has shown higher employment growth being met with rising participation. This has seen the unemployment rate fairly steady since mid-2017, now at 5.6% in February. As that is above estimates of full employment of around 5%, and along with a still elevated underemployment rate at 8.4%, slack in the labour market remains.
And .... the final word, and more concern for the RBA:
- While that persists, we are unlikely to see a significant acceleration in wages.
AUD update:
Up on the rate hike from the Fed, down on the good jobs numbers.
:-)
