How the dot plot changed

Here is the dot plot from June 2017:

It shows:

  • 4 Fed members expecting no more hikes this year
  • 8 Expecting one more hike this year
  • 4 Expecting two more hikes this year
  • A media at 2.00-2.25% for year-end 2018

Here is the new dot plot:

  • Still only 4 Fed members expecting no more hikes this year
  • 11 expecting another hike this year
  • 1 expecting two more hikes this year
  • 2018 is similar, still three more hikes priced in
  • Terminal rate down to 2.8% from 3.0%

This is more aggressive than anticipated and that's why the dollar is bid.