The Bank of Japan statement is due on Friday. As always, there is no scheduled time for the release, with 0230 to 0330 GMT (22030 to 2330 US Eastern time on Thursday) a reasonable expectation.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak soon afterwards, from 0630 GMT (0230 US Eastern time).

Reuters make the point that back in September 2022 Japan intervened to prop up the yen after it plunged on former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting remarks stressing the bank's resolve to maintain ultra-loose policy. This will be top of mind for Ueda who will not want to make comments that could be misread by markets. Indeed, he may go out of his way to sound more hawkish than usual. We'll see. Also in question is if the BoJ will leave the guidance it offered in March to keep buying government bonds around the current pace of 6 trillion yen per month unchanged.

The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Its also expected to project inflation will stay near its 2% target in coming years on prospects of steady wage gains.

Former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago says:

  • "The BOJ won't hike rates just for the sake of preventing yen declines,"
  • "But Ueda may repeat his recent commentary that the BOJ would respond if yen moves have a big impact on the economy and prices. If that keeps markets guessing the timing of a rate hike could be pushed forward, it would be effective jawboning."

Reuters adds on political considerations:

  • There seems to be no consensus within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), however, on whether the time is right for currency intervention. Japan's ruling party is not yet in active discussion on what yen levels would be deemed worth intervening in the market, though the currency's slide towards 160 to the dollar could prod policymakers to act, party executive, Takao Ochi, told Reuters.

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