One is a hawk and one is a dove
You never know which Mark Carney you're going to get.
Sometimes he puts on his hawkish hat and sends a strong signal about raising rates; other times he brushes away inflation worries.
On days like today, it's both.
Carney said the BOE will probably hike by a "somewhat greater extent" than the market anticipates but he also cut forecasts and blamed the entire overshoot of inflation on the weak pound. It's the same kind of story on Brexit where he today warned of dire consequences and said there's no evidence that businesses "think that the transition would be anything but smooth."
So with all the contradictions from Carney, the market decided to focus on the forecasts and for the key metrics -- GDP and CPI -- they were down. They weren't cut heavily but at least that's an unambiguous direction, unlike signals from Governor.
