The stampede out of currency forecasts is becoming a flood, who might be next
It's been quite funny watching the banks turn throw in the towel on their forecasts. What is surprising is how long it's taken them to do it. So who is left?
I've popped over to our mates at eFX to see who is still playing music while the ship goes down.
EURUSD
Barclays (as of Mar 22nd) has 1.03 in Dec 2016 and 0.99 in Q1 2017
Nomura (Apr 6th) 1.00 Dec 2016
DB 0.9000 Dec 2017
Scotiabank (May4th) next closest to parity, 1.02 Dec16/Jan17
And what about all those 120/130 calls for USDJPY?
Commerzbank 120.00 Dec 2016, 128.00 Jun 2017
SEB 125.00 Q1 2017
Scotiabank 120 Q1 2017
UBS 122 Dec 2016, 127 Dec 2017
Let's be fair though, prices can change pretty quickly, just look at the move south in USDJPY this year. Forecasting is often a fools errand but if that's what bank customers want, that's what they'll get. For those with more sensible heads on their shoulders, i.e the ForexLive readership, we know that a price will be what a price will be, at any given time, and all we can trade is what is in front of us.
eFX keeps an updated record of all the bank forecasts and trades. Sign up to eFXplus here to get a 20% discount on your monthly or annual subscription. Offer ends 5/31.
