Thomson Reuters research says the global gold market is at a surplus of 250 tonnes.

This would be the largest quarterly surplus since the final quarter of 2005

The report says:

  • Falling mine production (822 tonnes, down 2.1%)
  • Healthy demand for physically-backed gold ETFs (over 100 tonnes for the third quarter in a row)

Is not enough to offset a surge in scrap supply and plummeting sales of jewellery in Asia

India & China saw jewellery consumption down 41% and 27% respectively year-on-year (despite an improvement in demand compared to the prior quarter)

The report says the gold price is unlikely to fall below $1,240

Next year the price is set to rally, averaging $1,420 an ounce

What say the gold traders?