Yellen explains what's ramped up market worries
This is a key paragraph:
As is always the case, the economic outlook is uncertain. Foreign economic developments, in particular, pose risks to U.S. economic growth. Most notably, although recent economic indicators do not suggest a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, declines in the foreign exchange value of the renminbi have intensified uncertainty about China's exchange rate policy and the prospects for its economy. This uncertainty led to increased volatility in global financial markets and, against the background of persistent weakness abroad, exacerbated concerns about the outlook for global growth. These growth concerns, along with strong supply conditions and high inventories, contributed to the recent fall in the prices of oil and other commodities. In turn, low commodity prices could trigger financial stresses in commodity-exporting economies, particularly in vulnerable emerging market economies, and for commodity-producing firms in many countries. Should any of these downside risks materialize, foreign activity and demand for U.S. exports could weaken and financial market conditions could tighten further.
To me, this paragraph shows that the Fed finally gets it. Others had blamed China almost exclusively but here, Yellen is finally acknowledging that high commodity supply is driving down prices and that it's the commodity exporting countries we need to be worried about, along with commodity companies.
So at least we've got some people in charge who are capable of seeing the problem. The issue now is that Yellen & Co don't quite realize how big of a problem markets are saying it is. She continues to express confidence about inflation returning to 2% in the medium term and says on low breakevens that their "analysis suggests that changes in risk and liquidity premiums over the past year and a half contributed significantly to these declines."
That's not dovish enough.
