I posted in the aftermath of the election that a hung parliament "makes difficult fiscal decisions more difficult. You can expect increased talk of the threat to Australia's AAA rating"

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has taken up that theme, reports AAP:

  • Election outcome significantly increases the chance of an Australian credit rating downgrade ... because of the uncertainty the election outcome poses for the budget
  • Adds to the case for another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia

More:

  • "Ratings agencies may conclude whichever way it goes we're going to end up with a worse budget outcome than was projected in the budget"
  • "Then on top of that, the ratings agencies might conclude none of this is good for economic growth in Australia"
  • Dr Oliver said the prospect of another three years of de facto minority government coming on the back of the minority Gillard/Rudd government over 2010-13 and the 2013-16 coalition government's inability to pass much of its economic and budget reform agenda through the Senate is not a good outcome for the Australian economy

On the RBA:

  • Oliver says the RBA will not move this week
  • The bank may signal its policy bias (dovish)

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Uncertainty will weigh on the AUD in coming days. In my initial post-election comments (link above) I said also watch external developments and these will continue to impact also (China, Brexit, Federal Reserve) - keep those eyes and ears open ladies and gentlemen.

Note - there is no more counting of votes towards the result today, counting begins again on Tuesday morning, Australian time.

There is counting being done Monday .... for pre-poll ballots for the Senate are counted on Monday. Which is sort of like sitting through the supporting act of 'who are these guys?" while waiting for the Rolling Stones to come on stage.

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Note

There are plenty of analysts updating where they think we are at, this is the latest from Farifax (please note these are only projections, they are reasonable but these are not certain):

  • Coalition 72 seats (the Coalition is the current government led by PM Malcolm Turnbull)
  • Labor 63
  • 5 to independents

The latest from the ABC:

  • 72 seats for the Coalition
  • Labor 66
  • 5 for the minor parties (2 independents, 1 Greens, 1 Nick Xenophon Team, and Bob Katter)
  • 7 seats remain in doubt
  • ABC analyst Antony Green says the count in some of the seats being predicted by the ABC computer is extremely close. So even there, uncertainty rules.

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To form a majority government a party needs to win 76 seats