Expectations on People's Bank of China policy from UBS:

  • UBS expects a cut to the RRR this year
  • But not until later in the year, for the immediate future the People's Bank of China will use other liquidity tools instead to keep an accommodative credit and liquidity environment
  • Don't expect an interest rate cut
  • The bank is unlikely to opermit the USD/CNY to go higher than 6.8 by the end of the year
  • Do expect depreciation pressures to rise as fed rate hike expectations increase
  • Expect economic growth to pick up from a renewed pick up in infrastructure investment and public spending