Indiana votes on Tuesday
The last real chance for the #StopTrump campaign comes tonight in Indiana, where 57 delegates are at stake in a winner-take-all vote.
Ted Cruz desperately needs a win to prevent Trump from getting enough delegates to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. He has 956 to day with 1,237 needed.
The latest polls show Trump well ahead of Cruz but one line of thinking is that Cruz could make up the difference with a better ground game. The betting odds on Trump are -500 and the over/under on the primary vote is a 6.5 point Trump victory.
It's unlikely Cruz or Kasich will concede tonight if they lose but Trump would likely shift his campaign towards attacking Hillary Clinton.
Clinton, meanwhile, is already the presumptive Democratic candidate. She's a -300 favourite to win today's primary in Indiana. If she does, Bernie Sanders could concede defeat. But even if Sanders wins, he has no realistic path to the nomination.
Market impact
A tail risk in markets is a contested Republican primary. That could potentially stoke some serious anger, protests and political disenchantment. If Cruz pulls off the upset, it's much more likely. In that case, stocks, the US dollar and other risk assets will be under pressure on Wednesday.
The current thinking on Trump is that he's a fiscal spender. That could help near-term growth but Clinton is still a large favourite to win the Presidency at -340 compared to Trump at +280.
The final polls close at 7 pm ET (11 pm GMT) and exit polls could provide a quick result. If not we'll have the numbers in 2-3 hours.
