The single indicator that prompts the FOMC to change interest rates

Its economic surprises that push the Federal Reserve monetary policymakers to change rates

That's the view from Deutsche Bank AG Chief Global Strategist Binky Chadha

• Says the FOMC does not react to immediate gyrations in the data
• Rather, it's the six-month moving average of Deutsche Bank's data surprise index does tend to predict the ensuing Fed action (i.e. the Fed is looking at the trend)

There's a bit more to it than that, of course, more at the Bloomberg piece.