The real risk in the FOMC Minutes is always the same

Chances are, it's a dud

The real risk in the FOMC Minutes is always the same: That we learn nothing. It happens time and time again. It's more likely for the headlines to misinterpret the Fed than for anything meaningful to be in the report.

That sounds grim, but it's tradable.

If the market is geared up for hawkish minutes, then the trade is to sell the dollar and vice versa.

At the moment, the market is looking for something at least a bit constructive on the March meeting. That said, expectations this time are low, so I don't think the US dollar will fall much if it's a dud.