The fall in the pound shows that trade is in the dumps
Today's data shows a game of two halves. On one side we have good domestic numbers coming out, on the other it shows that the falling pound hasn't given our exports that much of a boost.
On the face of it the trade numbers should be a big negative but in reality, they're not. Our exports trifle in comparison to our imports, and have done for many many years. If the pound was to have helped exports it was only going to be a bonus, not the start of the UK becoming and exporting powerhouse.
The export/import numbers show that what strides exporters are making are still being swallowed up by imports. Exports rose 5.1% vs 2.3% prior. Imports were up 9.3% vs -7.8% prior.
So while foreign trade may suck, we can't ignore that domestically, the UK is trundling along nicely and still looks to end 2016 on a good note to take into 2017. The two levels of the UK economy, domestic and international, will be an issue that will continue indefinitely, whether in Europe or not, and in the meantime, don't just take the trade numbers as a sign of the health of the UK economy.
The pound has fallen below 1.21 by 3 pips now as the weight of the world continues to rest on its shoulders.
