How many is 'several'?

The only thing we know about the Fed's buzzwords for sure is that 'a couple' means two. Yellen made that that clear in February.

Now we're left to contemplate how many is 'several' after this passage:

"Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting. However, others anticipated that the effects of energy price declines and the dollar's appreciation would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions likely would not be appropriate to begin raising rates until later in the year, and a couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook likely would not call for liftoff until 2016."

Traders are noting two things:

  1. The meeting was before non-farm payrolls and some of the other soft data
  2. Dudley just today said 'the bar was higher' for a June hike because of the soft data

But the big question is 'how many is several'. Based on the wording, it's clear that 'others' outnumbers 'several' and then there is the 'couple' who want to wait until beyond year end (the dovish couple is Kocherlakota and Evans, undoubtedly).

The Fed also uses the words 'a few' (probably less than several) and 'a number' (probably more). Given that, I'd estimate that 'several' is five or six.

  1. Lacker (super-hawk and a voter)
  2. Bullard (hawk, non-voter)
  3. George (very hawkish, non-voter)
  4. Mester (hawkish, non-voter)
  5. Williams (? he has been making some hawkish comments and is a voter)
  6. Perhaps one of the governors, who are all voters

That's 2-3 voters out of 10.