From this week's New York Fed's Oil Price Dynamics Report

in summary, direct from the report "Highlights"

Oil prices declined in the past week, mainly in response to changed demand perceptions.

Oil prices fell over the past week, largely owing to deteriorating demand conditions.

  • Since the beginning of 2016:Q1, reassessment of global demand expectations has been a somewhat more prominent driver of oil price movements than perceived supply conditions.
  • These developments follow the sustained oil price weakness over 2015:Q4, which was predominantly supply-driven.
  • Oil price declines in Q2 and Q3 of last year were influenced more heavily by global demand expectations-a pattern at odds with the supply-driven declines seen in 2012-14.

What say ForexLive oil traders? Is the NY Fed on the right track?