CIBC on the FOMC Minutes
Following the Fed's September meeting, the hawkish tone of the statement and the three dissenting voters lit a fire under markets, and the minutes released today only added fuel to expectations for a near-term rate hike.
While there remains a healthy amount of disagreement about the extent of remaining slack in the US economy, it appears that the FOMC is moving toward a hike later this year. It was noted, that a reasonable argument could have been made to hike rates at the last meeting, with several officials seeing a hike as appropriate relatively soon. Several members stated that the decision at the September meeting was actually a close call. While some of those members still wanted to see further evidence of improvement, the rest were concerned with hiking rates without clearly communicating the committee's intentions ahead of time.
Now that the warning shot has been fired, as long as the economy continues to post decent results, it appears to be a question of when and not if the FOMC hikes rates before the end of the year, with November now clearly on the table.
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