Results from the Reuters poll of US primary dealers
The poll was conducted today
- 16 of 20 primary dealers see Fed raising fed funds rate in September 2015, 15 of 20 expect two rate hikes this year
- The median fed funds target among primary dealers is 0.625 pct by end of 2015 & 1.625 by end of 2016
- Median probability for September rate hike estimated is 55 pct, down from 63.5 pct in June
- Median probability for rate hike by December estimated by US. primary dealers is 80 pct, unchanged from June
Note the 'median probability for September rate hike' has fallen from the survey last month. Both the volatility in economic data and fears over Greece are playing a part in that... Greek default (or 'arrears' if you prefer) to the IMF, and a referendum this weekend both impacting. The possibility of a 'No' vote (though that's trailing in the polls) will trigger an intensifying of the uncertainty.
