I'll have more of a preview of the RBNZ monetary policy meeting on Thursday NZ time (announcement due at 2100GMT on 29 April 2015).

In brief, though, from RBC Capital Markets (bolding mine):

  • Say the RNBZ will "take another step toward easing policy at this week's OCR review, paving the way for a cut at the June meeting."

A June cut?

Wow ...

But, that's what RBC expect:

  • "Despite the strong reaction in NZD to McDermott's dovish comments last week, the forward curve is only around 30% priced for a June cut and there is less than a full 25bp move priced in by year-end"

On the NZD, RBC is long AUD/NZD:

  • NZD is "the only G-10 currency where net speculative positioning is significantly long, according to Friday's IMM data"
  • "in contrast, positioning in AUD is already deeply negative and there is little event risk in Australia this week"