Minutes from the October Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting
- Judged holding rates steady "at this meeting" consistent with inflation, growth targets
- Board noted Q3 CPI, updated economic forecasts would be available at next meeting
- RBA to consider housing, labour and economic outlook, effect of past cuts at November meeting
- Reasonable prospect of sustaining economic growth, gradual rise in inflation
- Considerable uncertainty remained about momentum in labour, housing markets
- An appreciating AUD could complicate economic rebalancing
- While housing risks had declined in past year, sector needed to be watched closely
- Q3 GDP growth looked to have run at similar pace to Q2
- Rising commodity prices likely lifted terms of trade in Q3
- Household consumption mixed, retail sales slow but consumers upbeat on finances
- Labour data also mixed, extent of underemployment pointed to spare capacity
- Growth in China seemed to have stabilised, but debt a source of concern
These quick Headlines via Reuters
Full text: Minutes of the October 2016 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
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Earlier today from the RBA:
- More from RBA Lowe: Further AUD appreciation from here would complicate adjustment
- RBA's Lowe: Australian interest rates already very low
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Simultaneously the New Motor Vehicle Sales for September out:
+2.5% m/m
- prior +0.1%
For the y/y, +0.8%
- prior revised to +2.8% (from +2.9%)
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AUD on the move higher again:
The Minutes read almost like Lowe's speech earlier ... themes the same. Which I suppose is not surprising.
I said earlier in my assessment of Lowe's speech that I though it binned prospects for a November rate cut (barring any shock) and the minutes reinforce that ...IMO at least. I guess a caveat is the "Board noted Q3 CPI, updated economic forecasts would be available at next meeting" ... which leaves the door ajar.
