If you are just tuning in, its the Reserve Bank of Australia Board meeting today
- There is little expectation of any change to the cash rate
- Eyes are on the accompanying statement for the outlook (there are some expectations of a November cut, and markets are pricing in a 25bp cut sometime in the next 12 months)
I have posted a few previews:
- RBA preview from NAB ... "likely to be something of a non-event"
- Australia - RBA meeting this week, quick preview
- Its Governor Glenn Stevens' final RBA policy meeting Tuesday - preview
From Westpac's Chief Economist Bill Evans (in brief):
- We are confident that there will be no move coming from this meeting
- The more interesting issue is whether the Board cuts rates at its meeting on November 1
Evans concludes 'No' on a November cut and goes on to discuss inflation and the potential to lower the inflation target ... but skipping to other points ... an overview of expectations ahead of the November RBA meeting:
- Global developments are also expected contain the need for lower rates
- We expect that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise the Federal funds rate in December
- Higher US rates are likely to reduce the need to take upward pressure off the AUD with an RBA rate cut
- We also expect that commodity prices will be falling under the weight of rising supply and reduced underlying demand from China lowering the AUD's fair value
- Uncertainty around the US election result (November 8)
- We do not expect any disturbing developments in the real economy
- June quarter GDP is likely to show growth of 0.4%, lifting annual growth to 3.2%
- Our lead indicators for the labour market signal jobs growth consistent with falling unemployment
-
Note, the June quarter GDP is published in Australia on Wednesday (0130GMT on 7 September)
- Bloomberg consensus median is +0.4% q/q and +3.2% y/y (priors +1.1% and +3.1% respectively)
