If too many Reserve Bank of Australia previews are barely enough, I've got good news!
Here are 10 of 'em (this via eFX)
SocGen: On Hold; AUD Not A Sell Yet.
A weekly calendar that includes policy-setting meetings that are unlikely to see further easing (yet) from RBA or BOK, and Chinese FX reserves data that probably won't show a significant fall, doesn't suggest at first glance that shoring AUD or NZD will bear fruit just yet....
Morgan Stanley: On Hold, AUD A Buy On Crosses.
We think AUD may have room to rally this week, but remain bearish over the medium term and like selling AUD crosses on rallies. Our economists are expecting 2Q GDP this week to show an expansion and the RBA to stay on hold, which will provide support for AUD. In line with strong building approvals and auction clearing rates in Sydney, there are also upside risks to the home loans print. If the RBA does not provide an indication that further easing is imminent, the current 14bp rate cut priced for this year may be reduced, supporting AUD further. However, we think that weak China July data, which points to slower China growth and weakness in commodity prices, will impact AUD over the coming months. China's slowdown as well as a higher AUD TWI may increase market focus on rate cuts down the line.
Credit Agricole: No Surprises; AUD Driven By Risk Sent.
The focus turns to this week's RBA monetary policy announcement, from which we expect no major surprises. As such the AUD should stay driven by risk sentiment, which appears firm for now.
BNPP: On Hold; AUD Driven By External Factors.
We are not expecting any surprise easing announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia. We think the AUD will be driven lower by external factors, as the adjustment higher in Fed tightening expectations challenges the risk environment.
BofA Merrill: On Hold; AUD Vulnerable To Risk Unwind
We think the RBA is likely to keep rates on hold when the board meets on 6 September. In terms of drivers more specific to AUD, we are watching iron ore and steel prices closely. The resilience in these commodity prices over the past three months has supported the AUD but may be set to reverse in the coming months, especially if China data slow. Our commodity team expects iron ore prices to weaken to $45/t avg in 4Q as seasonal weakness and a second-half lift in low cost supply bites. Deterioration in terms of trade would heighten the pressure on AUD from broader risk reduction ahead of the US election. Given the crowded long positions in the AUD, we think it will be especially vulnerable in a risk unwind scenario driven by external factors.
NAB: On Hold Through 2016; 2 Cuts In 2017
Governor Stevens last meeting should be a non-event: with the Board having eased twice in the past four months, the Bank will now be in monitoring mode for some time. Indeed, NAB does not expect any further rate changes this year, though we look for two further reductions in 2017 on the basis of an expected weaker economy in 2018 as housing construction eases.
RBC: On Hold; Balanced Statement
The RBA announces rates overnight tonight in what will be Governor Stevens' final meeting. There is a universal consensus for no change in rates and OIS attaches a negligible probability to a cut. The statement is likely to be quite bland, the RBA having given a full update on its outlook at the time of the August.
Westpac: On Hold Through 2016
Forecasters are unanimous in expecting no change after the August cut to 1.5%. Westpac expects no change for the rest of 2016 pending further information on growth and inflation into 2017, though market pricing is about 50/50 for another rate cut by Dec.
RBS: On Hold; Inflation Key For Another Cut In 2017.
We expect the RBA will keep policy unchanged this month and the central bank will only consider one more final rate cut from 1.50% in its current easing cycle in the next year if underlying inflation has a further lurch lower from current rates of 1.3% and 1.7% First, the RBA is likely to continue following the same flexible inflation targeting regime it has under Governor Stevens over the last 10 years in order to keep underlying inflation in a 23% target band.
Barclays: On Hold; Relatively Dovish Rhetoric
ia: The RBA is likely to stay on the sidelines in September, as no major data has been released since the August rate cut. That said, we think the RBA is likely to reiterate its concerns around the currency and maintain relatively dovish rhetoric.
