I previewed the minutes here, worth a read for the background and why this release is not as much of a focus as normal.
- China to slow further, markets uncertain on Beijing's ability to manage transition
- Low inflation may offer scope to ease policy if necessary
- Very low interest rates supporting consumption, home building
- Domestic data positive, reasonable prospects for faster economic growth
- Stronger jobs growth had lowered unemployment forecast by around 0.5 ppt
- Employment supported by service sector expansion, sluggish wages
- RBA looking at whether improvement in employment lasts, impact of market turbulence
- Past fall in AUD boosting demand for domestic production, service exports
- Drag from slump in mining investment to lessen a little over 2016/17
- Liaison suggested retail activity had picked up over Xmas, January sales period
- China demand key in outlook for terms of trade, commodity prices
I'm gonna sound like a broken record:
- The RBA is positive on the economic developments domestically (I'm not saying everything is perfect, but the strong employment growth last year has exceeded their expectations)
- They are concerned about offshore risks
- They will emphasise these offshore risks, partly because they are concerned, and partly because they want to highlight reasons not to buy the UD. The RBA does not eant the AUD to climb further from here
Meanwhile, the AUD is continuing its morning climb:
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Full text: Minutes of the February 2016 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
