Primary dealers survey: Fed hike seen in May or later

Highlights from the New York Fed's primary dealers survey

• Average conditional probability of a May or later was 78%, March was 20%
• Saw Fed changing balance sheet policy in 17 months
• Fiscal deficit seen at 3.7% of GDP in 2018
• See the survey here

The survey was taken in late January, before the latest jobs report and some other very good economic data so I'm not sure that Fed view is entirely current. The Fed funds futures market currently pegs the chance of a hike at 36.0% on March 15.