April oil production at the highest level in recent history
The rally in oil is a force of nature, crushing fundamental headlines and reasoning. Production continues unabated and storage is overflowing.
The latest survey from Reuters (which is the industry standard) shows OPEC supply at 32.64 mbpd in April compared to 32.47 in March. That's just 10,000 barrels short of the January record.
Iran production was at an astounding 3.40mbpd and is almost back to the pre-sanction level of 3.50 mbpd. Iran was producing about 2.8 mbpd under sanctions. Those were lifted in mid-January and the target for year-end was an increase of 500k bpd. They've already achieved that but it's unclear if all of it is production or crude coming out of storage.
The silver lining in the report, and what might be helping crude today, is that Saudi Arabia didn't raise production despite all the Doha talk. It was essentially steady at 10.15 mbpd vs 10.18 mbpd in March.
Baring a disruption, OPEC production will probably hit a record in May. Kuwait's strike is over and problems in Nigeria are likely over.
In any case, the oil market doesn't care. WTI is up 27-cents to $46.30 today.
