Ukip leader Nigel Farange encourages bets
One way to improve vote turnout for your side is to make sure your supporters have money on the line.
Ukip leader Nigel Farage said today he will place a £1,000 bet with Ladbrokes on a Brexit.
"I now firmly believe that we are going to win. It is still three to one against Brexit. Get down to the bookies," he said, which sounded like an endorsement for degenerate gambling as much as a Brexit endorsement.
In any case odds for a 'leave' vote have fallen to 5/2 from 4/1 on the weekend and 'remain' is now paying 2/7 compared to 1/7 at Coral. That's a big swing.
At Ladbrokes, the odds fell to 5/2 from 7/2. That corresponds to a 27% chance of leaving from 21%.
Generally odds provide a great guide but ultimately they reflect money and when you have one side telling people to put money down, it might cause a short term skew.
I've written many times that I believe the 'leave' voters will get cold feet but the FT had an interesting chart today showing that those who are most likely to vote are also those who are highly likely to support a Brexit.
