Like the headlines says .... Morgan Stanley on the China stockmarket:

  • Our stance on China A shares is that this is probably not a dip to buy
  • In fact, we think the balance of probabilities is that the top for the cycle on Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chinext has now taken place
  • We remain concerned over four factors: a) increased equity supply, b) continued weak earnings growth in the context of economic deceleration, c) high valuations, and d) very high margin debt to free float market capitalization
  • We set a new 12-month Target Price range for Shanghai Composite of 3,250-4,600. This range is -30% to -2% below the current level of the index (4,690 as of June 24 close

h/t to @macro_business

(more from MS here)