A few thoughts to throw into the current May-hem 8 June

As per my many posts since May u-turned and called the snap UK election I have a different take to the seats/majority knee-jerk that the robots have.

To repeat ( saves me typing too much at this late hour):

My strategy of selling GBP rallies and taking money off the table in the dips has paid well in recent months/years and I hope it's made a few of you some decent money too.

Yesterday I advised that I'd be staying out and looking for an opportunity to sell because, frankly, I didn't understand the reaction and subsequent extent of the price action. Indeed, I left my desk and was out to dinner with an esteemed former city colleague chewing the cud and ironically discussing what might happen next as the pound jumped even higher in nano-seconds.

I do see the plus side of political stability but the overall Brexit landscape is unchanged except we now have more uncertainty over whether it will be "hard" or soft". Hard is GBP negative overall and vice versa imho.

On the political front I think May has taken a big gamble in that she and her advisors have underestimated the anger/bitterness of the Remain voters (as she herself was) and that will come into play. ....I will be looking to short the Conservative seat majority,...I can see a few Tory MPs in those Remain constituencies out of work "

I added today:

Now throw in additional policy U-turns by May helping to lose her seemingly Teflon coat and the awful events in Manchester/London and we have a far more level/real landscape. I do feel though that the lack of any great leadership qualities shown by Tim Farron of the Lib Dems has once again undermined their potential threat.The uncertainty is real though so as ever we must trade the fact/outcome and the fallout/follow-through.

A large May majority will have the algos buying GBP on a political certainty/comfort/relief basis but for me (others disagree) that also means we have more chance of a harder Brexit and that's not so GBP friendly in its initial stages. The reverse is equally true so there's no clear direction to be had on just the election outcome and for that reason I don't expect pound pairs to do as much as some might think.

So while I'm pleased my gut feel was correct I advise caution that if the exit polls are right then that could still be GBP positive once the dust has cleared and markets focus on the bigger issues and robots get re-programmed by the rocket scientists.

May could face a real and understandable challenge to her leadership and that will weigh on the pound from a point of political uncertainty but could also be a better result for the pound.

GBPUSD currently 1.2756 after 1.2715 lows. EURGBP 0.8782 from 0.8728 highs and I concur to take some profit off the table as I have indeed done. I hope some of you have benefitted from my thoughts since April.

I have not changed my stance and remain a seller of GBP overall but I'm always keen to present an honest view.

We have more to unfold over the next few hours as the results come in but this election and the impact on the pound was never going to be clear cut and that uncertainty will prevail for many months to come.

I'm going to get some sleep now and get back here in a few hours to add what I can.

I wish you all good trading in the meantime as always.

May's just seen the exit poll results