Squaring up/flow to dominate until the release.

The dollars move higher has stalled a bit as London traders leave for the day, and traders begin the squaring up/waiting for the Fed minutes.

At the last meeting the Fed remained on hold but there was a division. Three members voted for a hike (Rosengren, Mester and George), while three members (Brainard, Evans and Tarullo perhaps) expect rates to remain unchanged at the end of the year. Nevertheless, 14 out of 17 said they expect rates to be higher. Does the market expect it? Well the probability of a rate hike has increased, with around 68% expecting a rise. but the final nail in coffin has still not been driven. A more certain Fed should benefit the dollar overall, but the markets remain fickle. Moreover, the volatility from the GBP crash last week has the potential to scare traders out of the forex market. That can lead to up and down trading.

Nevertheless, the dollar has been bid with the DXY trading at the highest level since March (the index has backed off since making new highs).

EURUSD

The EURUSD is an up and down NY session today, but is looking more bearish. The pair fell to the lowest level since July 27 today and in doing so, has moved back below trend line support at the 1.1034 level. The price is also below the low from August at 1.1045. That was near the low from yesterday at 1.1048. What was the high in NA trading today? 1.10446.

So if there is a level that dollar bulls would lean against it is the 1.1034-48. That is the shorts/sellers best case scenario technically. A move above will not be all that welcomed as it signals a failure of the break.

USDJPY

The USDJPY is also more bullish. For 5 trading days, the price of this pair traded above and below the 100 day MA (at 103.42 today). The price today has made more of a break higher and has moved away from that MA line. Staying above it will now be eyed by the bulls.

The momentum move higher today, took the price above the month high (at 104.15 - now a support level), and also above the September high at 104.31. The price remains above that September high level - at least for the time being. Another level to be aware of is the 61.8% of the move down from the July 2016 high. That level comes in at 104.44 (the high today peaked at 104.47). Getting above and staying above that retracement level will be eyed through the meeting minutes. If it can, then a test of 105.00 and then 105.54 (swing low from May) will be the next targets.

On the downside, I am not sure the market will tolerate much of a move lower. The pair battled above and below the 100 day MA for 5 days, and there is finally a break to new 2+ month highs and away from the MA line. To fail on that break, could see the pair moving right back down from whence it came at that 100 day MA and a collective "Boooo" from the traders might be heard round the world.