US expected to add 180K jobs in November
Even a sub-100K report wouldn't shake the Fed off a rate hike in two weeks. That's a done deal.
It's all about what happens beyond December now and the signals the FOMC might send. What degree of hawkishness and optimism will be in the statement?
If the numbers match expectations -- which are fairly lofty -- that will probably be enough to give the core of the Fed confidence that the economy is on the right pay. If it's anywhere above 210K and not due to some kind of election-hiring skew, then Yellen may hint at another hike to come in March.
The caveat, and what might be the clincher, is on the wage growth front. Average hourly earning are expected up 0.2% m/m after a 0.4% m/m prior. That's plenty-healthy and anything higher will make the hair stand up on the back of the necks of the hawks. The year-on-year rate is expected at 2.8%.
