It seems to me the consensus has swung firmly behind an RBA rate cut in April.

The meeting is next Tuesday, April 7, and it seems everyehere I look I see a a25 basis point cut as the forecasts.

Not from JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters, though. He remains unmoved, saying the RBA will remain on hold in April.

Says the decision will be a close call, but that the arguments for waiting until May are convincing:

  • Waiting would allow RBA to see Q1 CPI data
  • Also enables the bank to see another full round of the monthly data flow
  • Also, there is the "usual symmetry of the Bank moving immediately ahead of the release of possible forecast downgrades in the SoMP,"

Maintains his view that 2% will be the low rate for this cycle, but does say that the risk of sub-2% will grow if commodity prices keep falling