Japanese inflation data for August and September
National CPI y/y for August, -0.5% y/y
- expected -0.5%, prior was -0.4%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for August, -0.5% y/y
- expected -0.4%, prior was -0.5%
National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for August, +0.2% y/y
- expected +0.2%, prior was +0.3%
Tokyo CPI y/y for September, -0.5% y/y
- expected -0.5%, prior was -0.5%
Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for September, -0.5% y/y
- expected -0.4%, prior was -0.4%
Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for September, -0.1% y/y
- expected +0.1%, prior was +0.1%
I've bolded the national core-core CPI. This is equivalent (as close as it gets, anyway) to how other countries define core inflation and is the one to watch. Nowhere near the 2% target.
The equivalent figure Tokyo, for September (the Tokyo data is a month ahead of the national data) is at -0.1% y/y. To the extent that this is indicative of how the national figure may play out in next month's release .... not good.
So, where does this leave the Bank of Japan? If their solution is to keep on easing (which does not appear to be having the desired effect) then data like this argues for more.
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NOTE - the Bank of Japan's own measure of inflation will be released at 0500GMT. Excludes fresh food and energy. Expected 0.4%, prior 0.5%
