Where the Fed stands

Full text of the April 27 FOMC statement

"Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative..."

The forecasts released in March

Note that growth looks like it could be a shade lower while unemployment has already hit 4.7% (although that's due to workers dropping out of the labor force).

The dot plot

The rundown of what was expected this year

  • One member saw one hike this year
  • Nine saw two hikes
  • Three saw three hikes
  • Four saw four hikes

It would take a huge shift to bring the median down to only one hike.

Other notes:

  • Highlights of the June 6 speech from Yellen
  • FOMC Minutes: Most officials saw June hike 'likely' if economy warranted