Goldman Sachs quick and early preview of the January Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates In This Environment?
If that decision had to be made now, our answer would be a clear no. Although our baseline view has not changed, the risks to it have become even more asymmetric and the risk management case for waiting has become even more compelling.
The FOMC will likely recognize these increased downside risks in the statement following the January 26-27 meeting. But the next real decision whether to tighten further does not need to be made until March 16-17. And at that point, the picture could look quite different if our economic forecast is correct.
If the growth and employment data remain solid, core PCE inflation moves higher, and financial conditions stabilize, our expectation is that the FOMC would hike rates again, although the risks to this view have clearly grown in recent weeks.
Bolding is mine.
There is nothing much that isn't obvious already in these comments.
