Forex news from the European morning session 31 March 2015

News:

  • EU's Tusk sees no breakthrough on Greek deal before Easter
  • EU Commission says no deal reached with Greece yet
  • Greek govt officials leaving Brussels without a deal done with EU/IMF
  • China's SAFE sees 2015 GDP growth to be around 7%
  • Yemen foreign minister asks for ground intervention
  • Spain's Rajoy says he wants Greece to stay in the Eurozone
  • BOJ's Kuroda still expects to achieve 2% CPI target in period around FY 2015
  • Option expiries for the 10am NY cut today

Data:

  • Q4 2014 UK GDP final 0.6% vs 0.5% exp q/q
  • UK current account balance Q4 GBP -25.3bln vs -GBP 22.0bln exp
  • Eurozone unemployment rate Feb 11.3% vs 11.2% exp
  • March 2015 Eurozone HICP flash -0.1% vs -0.1% exp y/y
  • March 2015 Italian HICP flash -0.1% vs +0.1% exp y/y
  • German unemployment change March -15k vs -12k exp
  • German retail sales Feb mm -0.5% vs -0.7% exp
  • Italy unemployment rate Feb 12.7% vs 12.6% prev
  • French PPI Feb mm +0.7% vs -1.0% prev
  • February 2015 Italian PPI 0.5% vs -1.1% prior m/m
  • French consumer spending Feb mm +0.1% vs -0.1% exp
  • Spanish retail sales Feb yy +2.6% vs +4.1% exp
  • Nikkei 225 closes down -1.05% at 19,206.99

A busy session dominated by data and US dollar and one that's seen the euro take another hit as Greek talks go nowhere fast

EURUSD was already at 1.0800 in decline from 1.0840 in Asia but the move continued lower amidst some mixed data and we've seen a steady fall to 1.0713 after triggering stops through 1.0750 before finding it all a step too far and we've bounced back toward 1.0750 again

The story has been the same elsewhere for the beleagured euro that has seen EURGBP fall from 0.7305 to 0.7250 accelerated by better UK final Q4 GDP while EURJPY has also dropped to 128.65 from 129.70 as yen buyers continue to cap USDJPY which recovered from a Nikkei-led dip to 119.95 but failed to hold gains back above 120 and has now posted 119.84

GBPUSD has also seen steady declines into 1.4750 before rallying on that GDP revision to 1.4785 but then dipping again below 1.4760 only to rally once more in a general USD softer tone as I type

USDCAD has benefitted from USD buying and oil price falling to weaken the CAD$ to post 1.2756 from 1.2700 and AUDUSD has also been on the backfoot to 0.7591 from 0.7625 before finding some buyers. NZDUSD fell from 0.7485 to 0.7455 before returning from whence it came

A busy session with month-end flows and data a-plenty. Expect more volatility before the day is out