Forex news for Asia trading Monday 31 August 2015

Monday:

China:

  • Some market holidays this week - UK up first, China later in the week
  • China equities down, EUR up, S&P down, AUD, NZD down, yen up ... groundhog day?
  • Goldman Sachs puts China's yuan 'close to fair value'
  • Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecasts - MORE DETAIL
  • CSFC demands more funds from brokers
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate at 6.3893
  • Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecasts: 6.4% for 2016 (prior 6.7%)
  • NDRC: China's electricity consumption is expected to rise around 3% y/y in August
  • Xinhua - Concerned over local govmt debt, China's NPC approves loan ceiling
  • China press headlines crossing wires - industrial production may slow + more
  • FT front page - Beijing scraps large-scale stock buying
  • China to close around 10,000 factories this week to ensure blue skies for big parade

Australia and New Zealand

  • NZ Treasury: Monthly Economic Indicators August 2015
  • ANZ cuts forecasts for AUD/USD ... look out 0.68 and 0.67
  • Australian data - July Private Sector Credit +0.6% m/m (0.5% expected)
  • NZ - August ANZ Business Confidence -29.1 (prior -15.3) & Activity Outlook 12.2 (19.0)
  • Australia - HIA New Home Sales for July: -1.8% -0.4% m/m (prior was 0.5%)
  • Australia- TD/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge August: 0.1% m/m (prior +0.2%)
  • New Zealand July M3 money supply data: +9.3% y/y (prior +9.5%)
  • Australia politics - Early election (March 2016) being "considered at the highest levels"
  • Fitch says Australian housing boom hides mortgage delinquencies
  • NZ July Building Permits for July: +20.4% m/m (prior was -4.1%)
  • What Is SocGen FX Quant Fund Buying & Selling Now?
  • Ex Fed head Ben Bernanke guest post on monetary policy - caption contest!
  • Japan July industrial production disappoints - recap
  • Japan preliminary industrial production for July: -0.6% m/m (expected +0.1%)
  • French economy minister Macron - comments on fiscal transfers within eurozone
  • Monday's trade ideas thread
  • "Who is this old guy and why does he keep saying liquidity is thin on a Monday FX open?"

Weekend

  • What's the take on the Federal Reserve September rate hike after Jackson Hole?
  • Comments from Chinese PM Li Keqiang - no basis for continued yuan depreciation
  • Options market points to more trouble in China and US
  • USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD: Outlooks for the coming week - Morgan Stanley
  • Weekend comments from SNB's Jordan - confirms intervention in FX market
  • Yellen ally: "No" to rules-based monetary policy. What can traders learn from this debate?
  • Oil - Warren Buffett increases his bet on the energy sector
  • Greece headlines - polls and IMF comments (bonus China comment too!)
  • China to remove 20yr old restriction on bank lending, could boost credit growth
  • Jackson Hole central bank roundup
  • China's Commerce Ministry defends yuan devaluation, sees 'limited' impact
  • 2 central bankers made significant comments this week re a Fed Sept. rate hike
  • EUR/JPY technical analysis from Morgan Stanley ... "A fresh bearish signal"
  • Sept. Fed rate hike gives Yellen the chance to kill the "Greenspan put" once and for all

Not so much as a Jackson Hole, it was more of a China stock exchange black hole for markets today.

The Financial Times splashed a headline across its front page today (Beijing scraps large-scale stock buying) and that seemed to set the tone for the opening moves for the week. This despite weekend reports that CSFC demands more funds from brokers for stock purchasing intervention. The Shanghai Composite duly fell, closing its morning session down more than 2.5%.

The picture wasn't much brighter elsewhere in the region:

  • Shenzen down 2.3%
  • Honk Kong off 0.8%
  • The Nikkei in Japan down more than 1%
  • Australia, down more than 1.5%

Currencies pretty much slipped into the pattern familiar last week when China shares took a tumble.

AUD and NZD are lower. NZD was particularly hard hit, it has dropped nearly 50 points after very, very poor business confidence numbers today (see bullets, above). The NZ Treasury, too, contributed a nudge lower, cutting its growth forecasts in its monthly outlook release (again, see bullets, above).

EUR, CHF and GBP all gained against the USD. EUR/USD was the best of these, its up 75 or so points from its session lows.

Oil drifted lower throughout the Monday Asian session, with WTI off more than a dollar from its late US Friday high. Gold dipped early, to under 1130 before coming back toi be more or less much unchanged from opening levels