Forex news for Asia trading Monday 3 August 2015

Monday:

  • Goldman Sachs technical analysis - Elliot Wave - EUR/USD 'corrective/messy'
  • New Zealand Treasury Monthly Economic Indicators published now
  • China - July Caixin (formerly HSBC) manufacturing PMI: 47.8 (flash was 48.2)
  • Japan - Nikkei manufacturing PMI (final) for July: 51.2 (vs. 51.4 flash) economic data result
  • China Securities Times - CITIC denies accusations it's shorting Chinese stocks
  • Australia - ANZ job advertisements data for July: -0.4% (prior was 1.2% m/m)
  • Shanghai Composite to open down 1.3%
  • Australia - HIA New Home Sales for June +0.5% m/m in June (prior -2.3%)
  • Australia - TD Securities/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation +0.2% m/m (prior +0.1%)
  • Australia - CoreLogic RPData house price index for July: +2.8% m/m (prior was 2.1%)
  • Australia - AIG Performance of Manufacturing index for July: 50.4 (prior 44.2)
  • Australia announces plan to train 4,500 workers for NBN
  • UK Telegraph says reports Greek banks to undergo stress test this month
  • BOJ's Kuroda comments on 'no immediate need for additional monetary easing' - more
  • Trade ideas thread to start the new week and month - Monday 3 August 2015
  • Weekend PBOC comments, official says downward pressure on economy not small
  • Canadian PM Harper calls an election for 19 October
  • Monday morning FX market open - early indications

Weekend

  • Japan press: BOJ Governor Kuroda - no immediate need for additional monetary easing
  • The Chinese Way
  • Oh shock, there might be problems with the 20 August Greek bailout deadline
  • Deutsche Bank says still some USD appreciation to go, but deceleration may be due
  • China official manufacturing PMI at 50 in July (vs. 50.1 expected)

A subdued start to the week in the FX market.

EUR, CHF and GBP were all little changed against the USD during the Asian session on Monday. Some Greece-related news over the weekend had little bearing on trading today.

USD/JPY managed a gain in the early going, by the Tokyo morning it was up as high as just over 124.10 before settling a little to straddle 124.00. Weekend reports of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda had little impact.

Even AUD and NZD traded in muted ranges. it was a bank holiday in Sydney today, which may have contributed. House price data released Monday in Australia continues to show strong growth in the two major centres, which will confirm a note of caution at the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday (announcement due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0430GMT). I'll have a preview of the RBA up on Tuesday morning well ahead of the announcement, but the sneak preview is that no change in rates is expected, and an accompanying statement that will keep the RBA with an option for a cut open if they judge one necessary later in the year and beyond.

Oil and gold were both marginally, very marginally, higher during the Asian session.

Of regional equity markets, the Shanghai Composite was a star underperformer, down nearly 2.5% as I update:

  • Nikkei down 0.5%
  • Hang Seng down 1%
  • S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) down 0.5%
  • Other China .... Shenzen down 3%, ChiNext -5.3%