Forex news for Asia trading Monday 30 November 2015

Monday:

  • Japan vehicle production -0.5% y/y (prior -2.6%)
  • Oil under $30 a barrel threatens the stability of Russia's financial system
  • "Red flags" on China debt - brokers highlight 5 companies to watch for default risk
  • Australian data today "more positive than we anticipated"
  • More from Kuroda - Outlines generally agreed FX intervention guidelines
  • USD/CNH sold ... PBOC intervention?
  • BOJ's Kuroda is starting to convince he can revive inflation without extra monetary easing
  • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan reference rate at 6.3962
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda: China, EMs slowing, weigh on Japan exports
  • Australia - Private Sector Credit for October: +0.7% m/m (expected +0.6%)
  • Australia data - Q3 company profits: +1.3% q/q (+1.1% expected)
  • Option expiries due at the NY cut today
  • NZ data - ANZ Business confidence for November: 14.6 (prior was 10.5)
  • Japan: October retail sales 1.1% m/m (expected +0.3%)
  • Japan - Preliminary Industrial Production (October): 1.4% m/m (expected +1.8%)
  • Australia - TD Securities/MI Inflation Gauge for November: +0.1% m/m (prior flat at 0% m/m)
  • Aussie press: RBA "The dominant risk still is that the cash rate may have to fall"
  • More on cuts to Japan's corporate tax rate
  • Positions update on Societe Generale's FX Quant Fund
  • New Zealand - October Building Consents: +5.1% m/m (prior was -5.7%)
  • Your 'last chance' trade ideas thread for November!
  • Monday morning FX - 30 November 2015 - foreign exchange prices, early indications

Sunday

  • 42 big events to watch on the economic calendar this week
  • Swiss tourism sector lobbying for a new CHF cap at 1.1500 vs EUR
  • Japan's Abe orders an early cut in corporation tax
  • BoE's Vlieghe: Wants to see stronger wage growth before a rate hike
  • Why commodity busts are predictable, inevitable and unstoppable
  • As oil falls, Iran races to drill for more
  • Australians mark down PM Turnbull in latest poll
  • Japan likely to cut corporation tax below 30% in April 2016

If you're just waking up as I post this and casting a bleary eye over the major currency rates you'd be excused for rolling back over for more more sleep muttering "A nothing day in Asia". Can't say I blame you ... but ... wait ... I have one word for you: China.

Ugly, ugly session there so far.

Base metal prices continued to slide heavily today, despite the cuts to production announced last week for nickel and over the weekend for copper. Iron ore, aluminium, nickel, zinc, copper ... all down hard. And its not just heavy metal (yikes); just like Friday the Shanghai Composite slid again (by Friday's wrap it was down 1.5% and then it just got hit harder), and its down more than 1.7% as I update now (the market there is closed for lunch). Not only that, but today is the day the IMF is expected to approve yuan entry into its SDR basket. And, what better way to celebrate (I jest) than intervention to support the beleaguered currency (the yuan is at a 3-month low today)? And, lets not forget, more concerns over default risk in the Chinese bond market..

By the way, welcome to Monday.

OK, now that you're wide awake and sweating bullets ...

EUR, CHF, GBP, JPY ... all confined to tight ranges against the USD, minor wiggles prevailing.

We had a speech from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda today, but little yen impact (its marginally stronger against the USD and the EUR).

NZD/USD is (small) higher on the session after an early (small) drop. AUD/USD is more or less unchanged after it too had an early drop. Improving building permits and business confidence was reported during the session from NZ (see bullets, above).

Data for the Australian ecnomy was actually a small surprise to the better today, but the AUD nevertheless sold off on portfolio adjustment (which is fancy way of saying stop loss sell orders were hit (below 0.7180/85).

Gold is barely a little lower and oil is little changed.

Regional equities with Shanghai closed for the lunch break:

  • Shanghai -1.77%
  • Nikkei -0.45%
  • HK -0.24%
  • ASX -0.49%

Still to come:

  • Housing data from Japan
  • IMF to decide on including yuan in SDR (it's 99.9% sure to be yes)
  • German retail sales
  • German inflation
  • Chicago Fed PMI