Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 22 March 2017

  • 4 previews of the RBNZ policy announcement (due 2000GMT on 22 March)
  • Morgan Stanley see a 3 stage recovery coming for oil
  • Former trader at DBS brokerage unit in jail - Singapore’s first criminal spoofing case
  • Fed's Rosengren spoke earlier - recap
  • Asia firms' confidence hits near two-year high on US, China pick-up
  • US military confirm apparent Nth Korean missile launch, failure
  • The Fed's Mester spoke earlier on policy - recap
  • Japan finance minister Aso: Not trying to weaken yen through monetary easing
  • BOJ's Kuroda remarks on policy to the Diet
  • More on the (maybe) North Korean failed missile launch
  • Japan trade surplus recap - exports up the most in 2 years
  • Japan press: Nth Korea may have launched several missiles today
  • Fed's Rosengren: Hot US commercial real estate could amplify potential downturn
  • RBA's Debelle - no comments on economy nor monetary policy
  • BOJ's Funo: 2% inflation target remains, still some distance to go
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.8889 (vs. yesterday at 6.9071)
  • China - Banker confidence index climbed to highest since 2014
  • USD/JPY & EUR/JPY orders
  • AUD and NZD orderboards
  • EUR/USD orderboard
  • UBS to charge private clients for EUR deposits (accounts of > 1 million euros)
  • Goldman Sachs to move hundreds of people out of London before Brexit
  • UK press: Theresa May will reject Nicola Sturgeon’s demands for a fresh referendum
  • Japan data - February trade balance : Y813.4bn (expected Y807.2bn)
  • BOJ Minutes (January) - looks like more of the same ...
  • Coming up from the BOJ today - Funo speaks, Kuroda in parliament
  • Australia: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index (February) -0.07% m/m
  • M6.4 earthquake strikes off Bali (Indonesia) - no current tsunami threat
  • Fed's Mester: Built in >3 hikes to her forecasts for 2017
  • USD/JPY on the slide, under 111.50
  • Fed's Mester: Has built in a 'little bit' of fiscal stimulus into her projections
  • Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 22 March 2017
  • Goldman Sachs on oil, OPEC, shale: Could see record non-OPEC production growth in 2018
  • Fed's Mester: Does not see hike at every meeting, but more than 1 a year
  • Overnight: "PBOC Said to Inject Funds After Missed Interbank Payments"
  • BAML said today world stocks are their most expensive in 17 years
  • Economic data due from Asia today - BOJ & RBA speakers
  • ECB looking to fast track bank exits from London after Brexit
  • Latest French election poll puts Macron ahead of Le Pen
  • ICYMI: Forexlive America forex news wrap: Dollar down. US stocks tumble. Gold up. Yields lower

The risk off tone that prevailed overnight persisted in Asia. For regional stock markets that meant lower, as it did for commodities generally also. For currencies the yen kept on gaining, slipping under 111.50 early in the Tokyo morning and staying under there for a few hours before the selling dried up and we saw a bit of a bounce (of limited extent, circa-111.70 capping it on the session). News crossed during the session of another North Korean missile launch, this one apparently ending in a launch pad explosion (or something like that, it was called a 'fail'). Market response was limited.

We had data and central bank speakers today, a surge in Japanese exports (LNR affected apparently), Funo and Kuroda from the BOJ, Mester and Rosengren from the Federal Reserve. See bullets above for details on these (and more), but it seems like Federal Reserve communication is now not just to the market but increasingly between regional presidents; after the barrage of commentary ahead of the March rate hike to make the hike a sure thing today we got Mester seemingly ruling out a May hike (maybe not quite so strongly as Evans did overnight, but in combination with his comments Mester seemed to be hinting June is the next live meeting).

Currencies ... AUD was a big mover, losing more ground to slip down toward 0.7650 before any sort of stabilisation (and not much of that, barely a 10 point bounce). NZD slid but has recovered slightly more (around 15 points from its low).

EUR/USD moved a little lower, down to around 1.0790, USD/CHF is a few tics net higher and cable is little changed after a small range session.

Gold is more or less flat and oil not too much different.

China:

On Monday this week the People's Bank of China did a net injection of funds into money markets via reverse repos after 17 days of net drains, the OMOs continued on Tuesday and again today. Overnight news hit of "PBOC Said to Inject Funds After Missed Interbank Payments".

The injections have lowered rates in the lending market, relieving some of the pressure (the benchmark money rate had hit its highest in 2 years).

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei -1.85%
  • Shanghai -0.73%
  • HK -1.39%
  • ASX -1.58%

Still to come: Don't miss the RBNZ policy announcement. No change expected, but previews here: 4 previews of the RBNZ policy announcement (due 2000GMT on 22 March)

More - check this out from the WSJ ... if this happens (& you are in the US) you could sell your stocks and get a tax break ... uh-oh .... House GOP Pushing to Make Investment-Tax Cut Retroactive to Jan. 1