Forex news for US trading October 19, 2015

  • US treasury sec Lew says debt limit needs to be raised
  • Who will win in the 'Economists' vs 'The Market' Fed rates game?
  • US housing on the Fed's check list this week - Is there better news coming for the Fed?
  • Stocks start Monday on the back foot in America
  • Greek bank assessment will be finished by year end says ECB's Nouy
  • October 2015 US NAHB housing market index 64 vs 62.0 exp
  • ECB QE count: Total PSP €370.8n vs €358.8bn last week
  • Gold's 200 day MA and 100 hour MA converge. What next?
  • Here's why EURUSD longs may be the trade into the ECB
  • ECB Noyer says he is convinced monetary policy will normalize
  • SF Fed's Williams speaks on Bloomberg TV
  • Forex technical video. A look at the major currency pairs
  • US equities end little changed
  • Forex technical video: A look at the major currency pairs

The Canada election and lower oil prices helped to make the USDCAD the big mover for the new trading day. The results from the election will begin to come in later this evening. WTI crude future are trading down 2.48% as the NY trading session comes to it's conclusion. For the USDCAD currency pair, the price trended higher - breaking the 100 day MA (at 1.2919), the 100 hour MA at 1.2934, the 200 hour MA at 1.2967 and the natural level of 1.3000 level. In the new trading day, keep an eye at the 1.3062-78 area. This area corresponds with the 38.2% and other swing lows and highs going back to October 2nd. A move above opens all sorts of upside doors for the pair.

The EURUSD spent the NY session in a 37 pip trading range but lower on the day. For the day, the pair did most of the damage in the London morning trading session. The NY session did extend the range lower by about 4 trading pips but was not able to extend below the 1.1300 level. Nevertheless, the bears are more in control as the pair could only correct to the 50% of the days range during the NY sessions corrective move. A move below the 1.1300 level will be needed to push lower in the pair. ECB rate decision is on Thursday with Draghi's comments being the main event.

The GBPUSD stayed supported in trading today and will end higher on the day. However, the 100 day MA remains a topside hurdle that is proving hard to crack. The 100 day MA is currently at 1.5488. On Friday, traders took the price to the level and sold off. Today, that MA was broken in the London AM session, but reversed. In the NY session, the lid was pretty solid against the level. Although the trading bias remains positive and the correction off the high is stalling near the days midpoint, that holding of the key MA, may solicit sellers in the new trading day. MPC member McCafferty and BOE Governor Carney both speak tomorrow. Retail sales come out on Thursday.

USDJPY spent most of the trading day between the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 100 hour MA is at 119.18. The 200 hour MA is at 119.59 currently. The pair is up a small amount on the day (closing near 119.50). A break above the 119.59 level will be the next step for buyers. Above that level and traders will be eying the 119.72 level. This was the low close going back to September before last weeks push lower. A move above the 119.72 level could see further upside momentum develop as sellers become more disenchanted with the downside idea for the pair.

Other fundamental influences in the NY session: NAHB housing index rose to 64 from 62 last month. SF Fed's Williams said in a Bloomberg interview that he favors a gradual pace of removing accommodation but added the US faces "significant headwinds from abroad". He said he prefers to go a bit earlier, then go gradually, but see strong arguments from both sides.

US stocks up modestly.

Oil down over 2%.
2 year yield: 0.586%
5 year yield 1.337%
10 year yield 2.023%

Key events and releases:

  • Canada election results
  • RBA Monetary policy meeting minutes (8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT)
  • Swiss trade balance (2 AM ET/0600 GMT)
  • MPC McCafferty speaks (5:45 AM ET/0945 GMT)
  • BOE Carney speakes (6 AM ET/1000 GMT
  • US Building permits/Housing starts (8:30 AM ET/ 1230 GMT)
  • FOMC Dudley speak (9 AM ET/1300 GMT)
  • FOMC Powell speaks (9:15 AM ET/ 1315 GMT)
  • Chair Yellen speaks athe Labor Hall of Honor Induction ceremony (11 AM ET/ 1400 GMT)