Forex news for US trading, May 29, 2015

  • USD is the strongest currency this month. NZD is the weakest
  • US stocks end down on the day/down on the week
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders: JPY shorts increase by 40K in current week
  • Baker Hughes oil rig count 646 vs 659 prior
  • Varoufakis says Greece could borrow from the ESM to buy ECB SMP bonds
  • Greece will pay June 5th IMF payment says economy minister Stathakis
  • I know the fixings are supposed to be clean now, but...
  • Well that fix chatter looks to be complete rubbish as USDJPY jumps to 124.10 from 123.80
  • USD selling tipped for the London fix as last of the end of month flows go through
  • Greece was warned about using IMF default as a bailout tactic - MNI
  • Trends in May PMI data for the regional indices
  • May 2015 US Michigan consumer sentiment final 90.7 vs 89.9 exp
  • May 2015 Chicago PMI rumoured at 46.2 vs 53.0 exp (twitter) Actual: 46.2
  • May 2015 ISM Milwaukee 47.7 vs 50.0 exp
  • March 2015 Canadian GDP -0.2% vs +0.2% exp m/m
  • Q1 2015 US GDP revision -0.7% vs -0.8% exp q/q ann
  • Gold +$1.70 or +0.14%
  • WTI Crude up $2.55 or 4.42%
  • US 10 year yield ends down -1 BP to 2.12%
  • US 2 year yield ends down -2 BP to 0.605%
  • S&P 500 down -0.63%

It was week end and month and the price action in most of the pairs reflected markets that lacked liquidity.

Economic data in the US was mixed and did little to ruffle traders feathers. GDP was better than expectations, regional PMI data was disappointing but Michigan consumer sentiment ended up better than expectations. G7 comments were not a surprise. Greece pushed the can further down the road with debt payments TBD next week.

The EURUSD rose for the third consecutive day, and in the process nearly made back to the high reached in the first hours of trading on Monday (the high on Monday was 1.1008. The high today reached 1.1005). That is the good news for the buyers. The 196 pip trading range for the week was the 3rd lowest for the year. Just to put things into perspective, the average range per day over the last 22 trading days is around 140 pips. So volatility is coming off. If the unofficial early summer season starts on Memorial Day, the summer doldrums have already started.

The GBPUSD rebound in the NY session in choppy trading conditions. The fall has now erased the election gains. For the month the pair was little changed.

The USDJPY was another currency pair which meandered in trading today. The pair did move higher on the day and with that closed at the highest level since December 2002. The high price from yesterday was not approached at 124.45 (high price was 124.17).

The USDCAD did a near complete lap of its trading range. The CAD was hit hard after GDP data came out worse than expected at -0.6% for 1Q vs +0.3% estimate. However, oil prices shot higher (up 4.42% on the day) and that reversed the CAD fortunes. Technicallly, the price this week moved above the 100 day MA on Tuesday and still managed to close above the key MA today (at 1.2383), but the rejection of the highs both yesterday and today show sellers.

The NZDUSD was pressured this week as speculation of rate cuts started to increase. Today, the pair fell to the lowest level since October 2010.

The AUDUSD - which was hurt by dismal 1Q Capital Expenditure numbers yesterday traded in a narrow trading range today.

Next week, the US employment report will be the focus. The estimate (released on Friday at 8:30 AM ET) will be for 225K vs 223K last month. Have a great weekend.