Moves toward 100 hour MA
The USDCAD has moved to new session highs in the current hour. Oil prices are lower on the day - currently trading at $43.37. The low did extend to $43.03. The high was $44.51 today.
The move to new highs takes the price above the high from yesterday at 1.2729. The next targets come against the low from last week at 1.2743. That is also the level for the 38.2% of the move down from this week's high.
Remember the week started with a gap higher on the failure at Doha and lower oil prices. The Kuwait oil workers strike helped reverse the trend for oil back to the upside. Yesterday, strike ended but oil reversed and closed higher - helping to send the USDCAD to new lows.
The other key target level above is the 100 hour MA at the 1.2750 level. The price moved above that MA line last Friday and the gap on Monday sent the price further away from it (and also the 200 hour MA -green line in the chart above). Those breaks were short lived, however on the oil reversal on Monday.
Going forward from here, a move back above the 100 hour MA will now be needed to help confirm a bottom may be in place.
Looking at the daily chart, the price yesterday closed below July 2015 lows at 1.2665. The price also moved below the lower trend line. Today the price is back above the trend line. The low today is higher than the low from yesterday. It is also higher than the low from Tuesday. Good/bullish (albeit modest) developments.
IS the low in place?. There will be traders who are searching for that bottom. Who are looking for oil to start moving lower and supporting the USDCAD in the process.
I can buy that thought, BUT, I still need that move above the 100 hour MA (and then the 200 hour MA at 1.2794 currently) to give more of a bullish confirmation and a more warm and fuzzy feeling. That would be more convincing and will likely get the attention of more dip buyers.
-----------------------------------
Peace to Prince.... : (
I am not the musical aficionado as Mike or Adam, but I certainly grew up with Prince's Purple Rain. I think of my wife's good friend Donna who was a huge, huge fan.
My son Matt reminded me of these words:
Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to get through this thing called life. Electric word, life, it means forever, but I'm here to tell you there's something else; the afterworld. A world of never ending happiness - you can always see the sun, day or night. So when you call up that shrink in Beverly Hills, you know the one, Doctor Everything-will-be-alright, instead of asking how much of your time is left, ask him how much of your mind, baby. Cause in this life things are much harder than in the afterworld; in this life you're on your own.
