Down and up day but last move higher disappoints
Looking at the AUDUSD the price action today is down and up. It is now back down. The move back higher today took the price back above the 0.7466-69 area. There has been a number of swing levels in that area over the last week. It even got above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (currently at 0.74742). Those moves failed.
Now I can also say that at the lows today, the price stalled right at trend line support. Follow green circles.
So in reality we trade in between resistance above (defined by the swing levels at 0.7466-69 and the 200 hour MA at 0.74742), and support below (defined by the trend line at 0.7449 and moving higher).
In between the two levels is the 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.7459). We did try to go below that level earlier but it failed. That MA is at 0.7459.
How do you see this pair? For today, I don't like the failure of the bullish move higher (bearish), but in quiet markets, risk has to be defined. A move back above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 0.7474) would not be welcomed for a short. From there, because the downside has it's share of hurdles to get to and through, the trend line and 200 hour MA (at 0.7348 and rising), will help confirm a move lower.
