His path is for two quarter point hikes in 2016.

  • Sees growth 2% to 2.5% in 2016. Jobless rate 4.75% by year end
  • He's less optimistic on inflation than most of FOMC
  • Fundamentals good for most aspects of domestic spending
  • Foreign headwinds offset domestic momentum.
  • Inflation gradually approaching 2% within next 3 years
  • Favors more combination of US hit by unexpected shock
  • Favors a more gradual approach to tightening than the fed forecast of 4 tightenings.
  • Cost of hiking too fast far exceeds cost of going to slowly
  • Global economy should not be expected to be engine for US growth
  • Lower long-run growth may be troubling feature of US economy.
  • Slower long-run growth could necessitate lower equilibrium fed funds rate

Evan's comments are more dovish. He is NOT a voting member on the FOMC board this year.