His path is for two quarter point hikes in 2016.
- Sees growth 2% to 2.5% in 2016. Jobless rate 4.75% by year end
- He's less optimistic on inflation than most of FOMC
- Fundamentals good for most aspects of domestic spending
- Foreign headwinds offset domestic momentum.
- Inflation gradually approaching 2% within next 3 years
- Favors more combination of US hit by unexpected shock
- Favors a more gradual approach to tightening than the fed forecast of 4 tightenings.
- Cost of hiking too fast far exceeds cost of going to slowly
- Global economy should not be expected to be engine for US growth
- Lower long-run growth may be troubling feature of US economy.
- Slower long-run growth could necessitate lower equilibrium fed funds rate
Evan's comments are more dovish. He is NOT a voting member on the FOMC board this year.