The question on the Greek vote and markets today
The Greek referendum comes down to defiance of Merkel and austerity versus fear of a default, Grexit and the unknown. The polls show a close vote but it won't stay that way. As people head to the voting both, defiance begins to fade and fear creeps in. We saw it in the Scottish referendum and the UK election. It's why incumbents almost always get a bump on voting day.
That's why I believe a Yes vote is coming. It will leave the Greek government it shambles but it will also put Greece firmly in the Eurozone. The only way for Tsipras to continue his political career beyond Monday is to call off the referendum.
For markets, the equation is flipped. Stocks have routinely been defiant in Greece but it's a long weekend and the referendum makes it especially long. The stock market should be encouraged by nonfarm payrolls because it means the Fed is less likely to hike in September but fear about the unknown in Greece could dominate, especially late in the day. That will boost the yen.
