Largest gain since April 22
The euro is the top performer today and the yen is the laggard.
It's a holiday in the UK and USA so normally that would mean quiet trading but the Eurozone is open and today's German CPI numbers were a touch on the hot side and that's given the euro a lift ahead of this week's ECB decision.
Technically, the gains break a consolidation pattern that's unfolded over the past three weeks. It's capped by a series of highs starting at 124.05 and stretching to the 55-day moving average at 124.34 and the May high of 124.65. The downtrend from the Jan/March/April highs is also in the mix.
Those will be tougher levels to crack but I expect more short covering in euros ahead of Draghi. If French CPI tomorrow can match the bump in Germany, then the ECB will be firmly in wait-and-see mode.
The other trend with Draghi is to be overly-optimistic when he doesn't plan on taking action or signalling action. That's should add to the euro upside bias.
