EUR/CHF is seeing some decent action today, presently up at 1.5225 from an opening in Europe down around 1.5120/30.
The trigger for early swissy weakness was the release of very poor retail sales numbers and things were compounded by various comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Roth.
Retail sales for February fell a hefty 3.8% y/y after a +1.2% rise in January.
SNB’s Roth says that while there are some signs of swiss economic stabilisation, the near-term outlook is bleak. He doesn’t see any turnaround before 2010 and then recovery will be a slow process. The SNB will continue to intervene as long as deflation is a risk.
Roth feels the situation at Switzerland’s largest bank UBS is still difficult, but the environment is improving.
Technical supports lie at 1.5180, 1.5150 and 1.5110, resistances up at 1.5245/50, 1.5270 and 1.5300/05. It’s questionable whether this latest rally has the legs to reach 1.5300 without some additional fillip.
